Voter Revolt: Midterm verdict on Trump’s economy

JOSH BOAK

President Donald Trump was publicly humbled by inflation in Tuesday’s midterm elections, as rising prices provoked a blistering set of losses for Republicans in House, Senate and gubernatorial races.

Most voters said that Trump’s own policies had smothered growth and driven costs even higher, according to The AP Voter Poll, a survey of roughly 100,000 midterm voters. The president’s message that the fault lay with his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, didn’t land. Americans saw prices start to climb with Trump’s chaotic rash of tariffs last year, and energy costs spiked after he launched a war with Iran in February.

About two-thirds of voters said Trump’s own policies had fueled inflation. By contrast, only about half of 2022 midterm voters said this about Biden’s policies, according to AP VoteCast.

Voters in states from California to Mississippi were broadly in agreement that Trump’s taxes on foreign imports have done more harm than good.

The election results matched what voters had been telling pollsters for months, but Trump had campaigned with a decidedly deaf ear.

“I’ve done a great job,” Trump said at one of his final midterm rallies in Iowa. “Prices are coming way down.”

Buyer’s remorse with Prez

Democratic victories in Tuesday’s midterms signalled that most voters don’t believe the economy or Trump is working for them.

Consumer prices are up 3.7% over the past 12 months, compared to an inflation rate of 3% when Trump began his second term. The president told reporters on Wednesday that the Iran war “drove the gasoline up a little bit short-term,” but he felt the choice to fight Iran was worth it because it pushed for nuclear weapons. “If I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again,” he said.

There is no guarantee that a House and Senate with a Democratic majority can fix an economy pestered by uncomfortably high inflation. Trump and Congress would likely need to work on a bipartisan basis, or simply keep the economy stable enough to allow the Federal Reserve to ratchet down inflation through its setting of interest rates.

But voters did prefer Democrats to the status quo of a president who could govern with little to no congressional pushback from Republicans.

About 9 in 10 voters said the cost of living was a “crucial” or “major” factor in their vote for Congress. And about 6 in 10 of this group backed Democratic candidates in their local House races.

AI feeding fear, not hope

The underlying economy is stronger than many Americans think, with the S&P 500 stock index up more than 10% so far this year and the unemployment rate at a healthy 4.2%. Investors greeted the news of Democratic wins as a positive, with stocks up on Wednesday.

Still, the major driver of growth has been the buildout of artificial intelligence — a boom that Trump has actively stoked by refusing to codify more aggressive federal oversight.

Voters don’t share Trump’s optimism about AI, which he has renamed “super intelligence” in federal documents. Instead, about 6 in 10 voters said AI will do more to hurt society.

The technology could displace workers as jobs get automated or it could be a financial bubble that, if popped, could wreak havoc on retirement savings. Despite the anxiety, only about one-quarter of voters said AI was a “crucial” factor.

Wealth eludes middle class

Tech billionaires such as Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Elon Musk have become frequent guests of Trump, attending state dinners or jetting abroad with the president. But the growing concentration of wealth has been disconcerting for voters.

Nationwide, about 7 in 10 voters said the economy favours the wealthy. About 6 in 10 said they wanted the government to play a “bigger role” in addressing medical expenses. Most voters said Trump’s policies have made healthcare costs worse.

How voters felt about the overall economy generally depended on the size of their paychecks. While Trump campaigned on stats suggesting record-low poverty, the working poor saw their finances crumbling.

Most voters — about 6 in 10 — said Trump’s priorities were misplaced. When voters were asked if Trump fought for people like them, most said he didn’t.