Secret mission: CIA chief’s stark warning to Russia on Ukraine war

John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, made a secretive visit to Moscow this week to privately share a bleak assessment of Russia’s war against Ukraine and urge Moscow to negotiate before its military and economic situation deteriorates further, according to current and former officials.

Ratcliffe delivered the message directly to Alexander Bortnikov, head of Russia’s FSB intelligence service. He made no direct threats regarding potential consequences should President Vladimir Putin ignore the assessment and continue fighting. CIA analysts have long questioned whether Putin’s advisers provide him with honest updates on the war’s trajectory.

The CIA maintains established communication channels with the FSB and Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR. Officials noted that Ratcliffe’s channel with Bortnikov operates parallel to separate lines established by Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, with other senior Putin advisers. Some officials expressed hope that Putin, a former intelligence officer, would view a message from the CIA director as more urgent and credible than communications through standard diplomatic channels.

For much of last year, Trump and key advisers held the view that a Russian victory was inevitable given its larger population and nuclear arsenal. However, Russian forces have suffered massive casualties, and battlefield gains have stalled. It remains unclear whether Ratcliffe’s message signals any shift in US policy toward Russia or Ukraine.

The visit represents the Trump administration’s latest effort to revive stalled negotiations. It has become increasingly clear that Ukraine will not abandon its fight in the east, despite reduced US military assistance. Presenting a grim picture of Russia’s military and economic outlook, Ratcliffe told Bortnikov it was time for Moscow to engage in serious peace talks.

Since returning to office, Trump has scaled back military support to Kyiv, forcing Ukraine to rely more heavily on European allies. However, the CIA has maintained its close intelligence partnership with Ukraine, established over a decade ago.

Ratcliffe’s private message to Bortnikov reflected his recent public statements. Last month, he spoke pointedly about heavy Russian troop losses and stalled advances, noting that the life expectancy of a Russian frontline soldier was under 35 minutes. He added that Russia had captured only about 1% of Ukrainian territory over the past 18 months, citing Ukraine’s mastery of drone technology.

Prior to his Moscow meeting, Ratcliffe spoke with Ukrainian counterparts, reassuring them that he would be gauging Russian positions rather than offering concessions on Kyiv’s behalf. Ukrainians have long viewed Witkoff and Kushner as overly sympathetic to Moscow, whereas they see Ratcliffe, a known Russia hawk, as a more neutral mediator.

European diplomats believe a window for a peace agreement may open this winter due to Russia’s stalled offensive in the Donbas and Ukraine’s capacity to inflict heavy costs through drone warfare. European officials have urged the Trump administration to include a national security figure in peace discussions to deliver the firm message Ratcliffe presented this week.

Trump has repeatedly dispatched Ratcliffe on sensitive foreign missions. In January, he became the first Cabinet-level official to visit Venezuela after US Special Operations forces captured President Nicolas Maduro. In May, he travelled to Cuba to deliver a stark evaluation of its economy under a US oil blockade, urging political and economic reforms.

Direct engagements between US and Russian spy chiefs have been sporadic. In November 2021, William Burns, CIA director under the Biden administration, met Bortnikov in Moscow to warn against a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A year later, Burns met Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s SVR, in Ankara following intercepted Russian communications regarding potential nuclear use. Burns warned of severe consequences if Russia acted. While Turkey hoped to establish a permanent channel, the CIA limited further contact after Moscow made the meeting public, though periodic phone calls continued.

Ratcliffe and Bortnikov previously coordinated a prisoner swap after Trump assumed office, but this week’s encounter marked their first face-to-face meeting.