Political security: Flydubai attack feeds Bibi's protector narrative

Ran Porat

The apparent attempted hijacking of a Flydubai flight carrying 170 mostly Israeli passengers was another reminder to Israelis of the constant threat of terror and war. Only the bravery of the chief pilot and passengers prevented a major disaster.

A few hours earlier, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video warning of attempts to harm Israelis before the October 27 election. Initially, opponents criticised this as a stunt to divert public discourse toward security concerns and away from his part in the October 7 Hamas failures.

But after the suspected terror incident on the Flydubai plane, Netanyahu can claim he was right. With elections approaching, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history hopes to restore his image as "the protector of Israel".

Netanyahu was quick to incorporate the plane attack into his campaign, posting social media videos and images of him embracing and praising a passenger (a supporter) who stormed the cockpit, his shirt still stained with blood.

Despite public outcry, Netanyahu refuses to accept blame for October 7. He blocked a judicial commission to investigate the attack, while failing to establish a different investigative committee more favourable to him.

Netanyahu repeatedly argued that security officials failed to warn him of the impending assault, saying if they had woken him up earlier on October 7, things would have been different.

Recent reports, however, paint a different picture. Numerous media outlets reported that Israeli security agencies and Netanyahu received explicit warnings days before the 2023 attack from Egypt’s intelligence minister and UAE President Mohammad bin Zaid. A new book also claims Netanyahu received a direct warning from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the attack.

The prime minister and top security officials understood these warnings of an "earthquake" erupting in Gaza as merely a demand for economic concessions for Palestinians.

Israeli decision-makers were captive to a conceptzia — an entrenched set of assumptions about enemy capabilities and intentions, a term coined after intelligence failures before the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

In 2023, Netanyahu’s conceptzia, supported by officials fooled by Sinwar, was that Qatari money going to Hamas would "buy quiet," according to his critics.

Netanyahu approved transferring millions from Qatar to Gaza from 2018 onward. Yet, instead of assisting needy Gazans, Israeli intelligence believes these funds fed Hamas’ military abilities and underground terror infrastructure.

In the election, Netanyahu faces strong opposition from the "ABBA" (Anyone But Bibi Again) bloc. His main rival is the Yashar! Party ("direct"), headed by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose son was killed in the Gaza war.

Polls consistently suggest Yashar! will be the biggest party after elections. Yet, forming a coalition is difficult because Eisenkot’s bloc is a mishmash of right, left, and centre parties, mirroring the Bennett-Lapid coalition that collapsed in 2022.

Furthermore, many Zionist parties demand the next government be "Zionist-only," refusing to participate in a coalition that includes the Arab Islamic party Ra'am.

Ra'am was the missing piece enabling the creation of the Bennett-Lapid government after four consecutive elections ended in 2022 without a governing majority. Without Ra'am, the ABBA bloc may not form a coalition.
The fate of small parties trying to pass the vote threshold to sit in the Knesset remains an unpredictable wild card. Wasted votes on small parties that fail to meet the threshold could dramatically affect the final result.

Until recently, polls pointed to a likely change of government. But in recent weeks, polls tightened between pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs because standard surveys exclude Arab parties and the Hendel/Zelekha party.

October 7 looms large over the vote. Days before the election, Israelis will solemnly commemorate the third anniversary of the attack where nearly 1,200 were massacred on Black Saturday, around 250 kidnapped, women raped, and whole neighbourhoods destroyed.

In the war in Gaza that followed, over 70,000 Palestinians have been killed, leaving vast stretches ruined and 1.2 million homeless.

October 7 dominates the election campaign. Many candidates are family members of victims or injured soldiers, while polls show an unprecedented number of young, first-time voters shifting decisively to the right.

Many Israelis fear another election deadlock. The state urgently needs a leader who can safely steer it amid criticism over the Gaza war, global antisemitism, and incidents like the Flydubai hijacking. Netanyahu aims to project himself as that leader — as do his political opponents.