Historic shift: UK settlement ban targets E1 expansion

Rory McCarthy

Israel has been building settlements in the occupied West Bank for decades. But Britain's new ban on the import of settlement goods comes in response to a major escalation in construction over the past four years, which an International Court of Justice advisory opinion in 2024 concluded is illegal and must stop.

Most striking are recent steps to build a new settlement bloc known as E1 on the outskirts of Jerusalem. First planned as long ago as 1999, but progressing significantly over the past year or so, the E1 bloc would mark a major change to the geography of the West Bank.

Current plans allow for thousands of housing units in the settlement, as well as commercial properties and regional services. The project would establish a new urban area that would connect the large settlement of Maale Adumim with East Jerusalem.

The international community has long seen the construction of E1 as a red line for three main reasons. First, it would isolate East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank, including major Palestinian cities like Ramallah and Bethlehem. This matters because East Jerusalem is the proposed capital of a Palestinian state in any future two-state agreement to end the conflict.

Second, because E1 spans the West Bank at its narrowest point, its completion would divide the territory into isolated northern and southern enclaves. Fragmenting Palestinian land in this manner makes creating a contiguous sovereign state virtually impossible. Third, implementing the project involves displacing Palestinians. Israeli authorities have already targeted the Bedouin community of Khan al-Ahmar, ordering its evacuation in May 2026 ahead of new construction.

Israeli ministers have been explicit that E1 would suffocate any future Palestinian state. In September 2025, while announcing progress on E1, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly declared: "We are going to fulfil our promise that there will be no Palestinian state." Echoing this stance, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich publicly remarked that pushing E1 forward would permanently "bury the idea of a Palestinian state."

After years of delay, the E1 expansion is moving forward rapidly. In August 2025, planning authorities granted final approval for over 3,400 housing units on the site. Exactly one year later, in August 2026, the government issued the first construction tenders for 1,200 residential units in E1’s southern sector. The bidding deadline is October 19, just ahead of Israeli national elections on October 27.

The UK’s import ban aims to deter corporate contractors from participating in E1’s construction. Britain is not acting alone; similar trade measures have been announced by Canada, France, Ireland, and Spain. These sanctions demonstrate mounting international concern over settlement growth. Today, more than 700,000 Israeli settlers reside on land captured in the 1967 Six-Day War, even though such settlements remain illegal under international law.

Monitoring groups highlight an unprecedented surge in illegal outposts. According to Israeli human rights group Peace Now, authorities have approved over 102 new settlements since 2022, mostly deep inside the West Bank. The Israeli military routinely supports settlers, while the government provides substantial financial backing.

The human cost is severe. UN data shows over 6,400 Palestinians have been displaced across the West Bank since January 2023 due to settler attacks and movement restrictions, including at least 2,500 in 2026 alone. Furthermore, military operations in northern refugee camps have displaced an additional 30,000 Palestinians since late 2024.

Israel’s expanded West Bank control marks a shift from past conflict management toward territorial expansion. Following the October 2023 Hamas attacks where gunmen killed over 1,200 Israelis and captured 250 hostages and the subsequent war in Gaza that killed over 70,000 Palestinians, Israel has pushed its borders outwards. It has established buffer zones in southern Lebanon, advanced into Syria following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in late 2024, and taken control of at least 60% of Gaza, where building three new military settlements is under consideration.

Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir recently raised the prospect that Israel may seek to expel Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians. Neighbouring Egypt and Jordan are gravely concerned about the looming risk of mass deportations across their borders. In this escalating regional environment, the UK government’s trade action, accompanied by similar measures from international allies, signals a firm effort to curb these expanding territorial ambitions.