For more than three years, Giorgia Meloni’s leadership of Italy seemed unshakable. As the country’s first female prime minister, she shed a far-right past to govern with a pragmatic, steady hand, stable ratings and the occasional scandal a rarity in a country accustomed to volatile politics.
Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term, she has positioned herself as someone who can curry favour and avoid retaliation which Italy can ill afford while steering clear of a clash with EU institutions that service Italy’s enormous public debt. It was a delicate balance she maintained remarkably well.
But as Trump’s popularity craters in Europe, and the continent finds a backbone in its dealings with him, Meloni is discovering that being a favourite of the US president can be a liability.
Meloni was elected in 2022, six months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on a far-right platform in a coalition including lawmakers who sounded pro-Russia. But she quickly dispelled concerns among mainstream European politicians that they would be dealing with another Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Russia-friendly leader. Italy has sent military aid to Ukraine and is a member of the ‘coalition of the willing’, a group of 30 countries committed to security guarantees for Ukraine after a ceasefire.
With Trump, she managed to avoid the cycle of deference and rejection that some European leaders fell into. Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, for example, proffered a royal invitation during his first Oval Office visit, only for the relationship to crumble. Meloni seemed to have obtained real favour partly attributable to her style, which is accommodating but never grovelling; partly to ideological affinity. She was the only sitting European leader to attend his inauguration, and Trump recently described her as “a great leader and a friend of mine”.
But Trump has become increasingly toxic in Europe. Discussing the Iran war in an address to Parliament on March 11, Meloni said Italy “is not taking part in that intervention and does not intend to take part,” placing the strikes “outside the perimeter” of an international system “in crisis”. When Trump demanded European help to open the Strait of Hormuz, he received a curt reply from Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, who said the question of German military involvement “does not arise”. On March 20, Meloni echoed this: “No one is considering an Italian military mission to force the blockade of the strait.”
Trump’s approval rating in Italy is almost half of what it was a year ago, at 19%. Public opinion is strongly against the war in Iran; consumers and businesses are being hit with price increases on oil and gas, and agriculture is squeezed by fertiliser shortages. If it is not possible to extract a visible advantage from being Trump’s European favourite, what exactly is the point?
That was the mood last month when Italians voted in a referendum on judicial reform. Officially a policy vote, it became a confidence motion on Meloni’s government. Turnout was higher than expected, and “No” won with a solid margin of 54%. She suddenly looked vulnerable, and the opposition sensed an opportunity.
In the past two years, Meloni’s premiership survived, seemingly unscathed, a sex scandal involving the culture minister, a fraud investigation into the tourism minister, an inquiry into the repatriation of a Libyan warlord and the conviction of an undersecretary for revealing classified information. In 2024, her approval rating was 41%; by November 2025, it had risen to 45%.
The improbably long honeymoon is over. After the referendum results, she forced the resignation of the tourism minister and the convicted under secretary, although neither scandal was related to judicial reform. Last week, Italy reportedly denied US military aircraft permission to land at a base in Sicily before heading to the Middle East because the US had not requested clearance. The government denied the refusal was due to tensions with Washington, but the signal was clear.
There is an Italian proverb: “I’ll protect myself from my enemies; may God protect me from my friends.” The cost of being Trump’s friend in Europe increasingly outweighs the benefits.
The New York Times