Last week, the Union government sounded confident about meeting the domestic demand for petrol, diesel and LPG.
Now, media reports about shortages of commercial LPG in several cities are pricking the bubble. People are wondering how the country got to this situation because the government and petroleum ministry officials had claimed that the country had stocks of LPG sufficient to last 25-30 days.
The crisis in West Asia has been brewing for a while, and the conflict has been quickly escalating. Yet the Indian government appears to have dropped the ball for inexplicable reasons. There was an air of smug overconfidence and bravado on the part of the government, along with a belief that nothing could shake it a regime adept at perception and headline management, aided by an army of IT Cell trolls and an inept mainstream media that often fails to hold it accountable.
A pattern is discernible: the Prime Minister and his ministerial colleagues go to town when there is something to boast about, but in a crisis, they retreat into a shell of silence.
From the beginning, it was evident that a bomb was ticking and not quite silently as India relies heavily on LPG imports. Over 80 per cent is sourced from Gulf countries, and most of it comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Opposition parties suspected a cover-up and accused the government of not revealing the complete picture and the magnitude of the impending crisis.
However, the government soon moved into damage-control mode and swung into action once the supply crunch could no longer be kept under wraps. First, it invoked the Essential Commodities Act to prioritise supply to nearly 33 crore households, besides critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions. Second, it increased gas prices by about Rs 60. Third, it ordered oil refineries to increase production.
Fourth, to prevent hoarding and black marketing, the government extended the inter-booking period for domestic consumers from 21 days to 24 days. Finally, a committee of three executive directors of oil marketing companies was constituted to review representations from hotels and other industries.
These responses appear reactive rather than proactive in building reserves needed to ensure energy security.
The government now says it is exploring new sources beyond traditional suppliers and looking at alternative routes. Better late than never. The questions remain: how did the government fail to anticipate the problem, and why did it not diversify the oil and gas basket when military action threats had been repeatedly raised by the United States and Israel over the past two years?
Given the complexity and enormity of the challenge, the government should have taken all parties into confidence and sought their input.
Instead, the ruling party avoided meaningful engagement with the opposition in Parliament. Assuming itself the sole repository of wisdom, the party and within it a small section has taken decisions almost unilaterally. This must change quickly to avoid a repeat of the faulty governance and inaction seen during the COVID-19 crisis.