Editorial: Window of opportunity

The world literally pulled itself back from the brink with the announcement of a two-week conditional ceasefire, which was agreed by both the US and Iran. There were fears of large-scale civilian casualties and destruction of civic infrastructure and economic assets as US President Donald Trump made reckless threats, and a defiant Iran responded with potential defensive retaliation. There were even ominous speculations of a nuclear strike by the US. At one point, it was becoming difficult to distinguish real threats from irresponsible bravado and posturing, given how unpredictable and dangerous the US president had become.

Firstly, the success of the ceasefire would depend on how trustworthy the US would be in honouring its commitment. Iran’s deep distrust and scepticism is legitimate given its experience and that of other nations with which the US has had conflicts. Secondly, will the US be able to rein in Israel, which would be determined to undermine the ceasefire and derail the negotiations? Already, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has begun to throw a spanner in the works by claiming that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire and launching attacks in the south of the Arab state. This clearly is not a good sign.

The talks between the two warring countries, which will begin on April 10 in Islamabad, are going to be extremely complicated and difficult as both parties are putting forward "maximalist" demands which will not be acceptable to the other. For the talks to be meaningful and result-oriented, the onus will be on the US to instil trust and confidence in Iran that it is not merely buying time for a more aggressive and devastating attack in the near future.

Closer home, that Pakistan successfully mediated the ceasefire is going to have some implications. The emergence of Islamabad as a major player in international affairs can be a cause of concern for India, whose relationship with the US and China has been going through a rough patch. India’s marginalisation appears to be self-inflicted. It all began with the inopportune timing of PM Modi’s visit to Israel, which was days before the US-Israel strikes on Iran. Things worsened when India was like a deer caught in the headlights; it became speechless and paralysed in the wake of the killing of Iran’s supreme leader and the torpedoing of an Iranian ship that was returning from a naval exercise hosted by India.

To many foreign policy experts, it was nothing short of a disaster. The ill-timed visit, which was construed as being a part of the Israeli camp and an endorsement of its unjust war on Iran, and the subsequent wishy-washy stance resulted in New Delhi falling between two stools. All the tall claims popularised by the BJP IT cell and a compliant media of India’s soft power, the magic of Modi’s personalised diplomacy, and the gaining of a place at the high table of global politics seem to have come to naught. Pakistan has evidently succeeded where India, despite its size, economic might and other levers of influence, seems to have failed. Islamabad has been successful in managing relationships with arch-rivals: the US on the one hand and Iran and China on the other. India’s strategic shift towards Israel has cost it an age-old, reliable and trustworthy relationship with Iran. The political leadership, the Prime Minister and the mandarins of South Block have their work cut out for them — to regain the lost ground.