The continuing West Asia war is starting to adversely affect India, and particularly its senior citizens. India has deep economic links with the Gulf region. India imports over 80% to 85% of its crude oil, much of it from the Middle East. Around 9 million Indians work in Gulf countries, sending large remittances to India. Nearly 38% of India’s remittance inflows come from the Gulf nations.
Disruptions due to the ongoing conflict and the disruption of the supply chain have already pushed global oil prices upwards, weakening the rupee and increasing inflation risks. When we look at the factors adversely affecting the quality of life of senior citizens because of the recent upheavals in the Gulf region, there are some areas that predominantly impact daily life.
Firstly, higher oil prices will increase the cost of transport, electricity, cooking gas, and food production and logistics. Since India relies heavily on imported oil, any supply disruption can drive general inflation across the economy. For seniors living on pensions or interest income, this reduces purchasing power.
An increase in fuel prices often triggers a spike in the price of essential commodities, vegetables, and daily living costs, alongside rising medicine supply costs, which inadvertently push up treatment costs and transport fares. All these affect retired individuals disproportionately compared to young working individuals.
The worsening overall economic situation in the country may produce a cascading effect. Pressure on government finances can result in less expenditure for schemes related to senior citizens. If oil prices remain high, government fuel subsidies may increase, widening fiscal deficits and changing the pattern of public spending priorities. This could also affect welfare programmes, pension adjustments, and healthcare subsidies.
Secondly, the rupee has already seen a fall against the dollar amid war-related uncertainty and capital outflows. A weakening rupee makes imported medicines and medical equipment, as well as medical technology and diagnostic tests, more expensive. Since seniors consume more healthcare services, this is significant.
Reduced remittances from Gulf countries are another problem. Many Indian families depend on money sent by relatives working in the Gulf. If the war affects jobs and migration, remittance inflows could decline as a consequence, causing family support for elderly parents to shrink. This is especially relevant in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, where Gulf migration is common.
Economic slowdown can also affect savings. A prolonged war can cause market volatility, banking pressure, and slower economic growth. This will, in turn, affect the returns from savings, and earnings from investments may decline, affecting retirees who depend on interest or dividends as a substantial source of income.
Beyond finances, any regional or major international crisis creates emotional stress: fear of rising prices, anxiety about savings, and concerns about children working abroad all add to this emotional turmoil. This is compounded by the uncertainty about the affordability of healthcare and daily essentials. Isolated and single elderly individuals often feel the impact more acutely.
The government and public support systems should promptly recognise this rising stress among the elderly population and institute appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of this geopolitical crisis on their already fragile existence.
The government, banks, and public services can help minimise distress for senior citizens. We must strengthen the income security of senior citizens by encouraging and helping them to prioritise stable income sources such as the Senior Citizen Savings Scheme (SCSS), the post-office monthly income scheme with added interest for senior citizens, the preferential issue of short-term government bonds for senior citizens, and easily available loan facilities for emergency expenditures due to personal or spouses’ illness or accidents. These instruments can provide a predictable income even during economic instability.
Also, all salaried individuals should be encouraged to proactively plan support for themselves as well as their elderly parents. Schemes for saving to create a medical contingency fund and ensuring adequate health insurance for parents who are not employed should be strongly encouraged.
Public and private sector employers should develop instruments and schemes to facilitate this as a dedicated service as part of their CSR. Banks and insurance agencies should be mandated to offer schemes that prioritise the maximum public benefit for senior citizens and the elderly, rather than being driven by profit margins.
Local initiatives can help seniors cope with increasing stress. These can be neighbourhood support networks as well as senior citizen welfare associations. The government should give incentives for elderly-focused community initiatives by providing generous grants and giving incentives to philanthropic organisations to be involved in such startup ventures.
To protect seniors during global crises, policymakers should seriously consider instituting measures like a dynamic and very responsive indexing of pensions to inflation, subsidised healthcare for the elderly, protection of small savings interest rates for senior citizens, affordable, subsidised, or free public transport for seniors, and expanded geriatric healthcare services available even at the PHC level.
The real protection for future generations of seniors lies in reducing national vulnerability to the vagaries of the international political climate and economic downturns. These can be mitigated by expanding renewable energy usage, reducing dependence on Gulf remittances, and strengthening domestic social security systems.
Unless the government, public services, and society at large work in coordination and proactively institute measures, the senior citizens of India will bear the brunt of the impact of geopolitical shocks in everyday life due to the ongoing upheaval and economic volatility due to wars and conflicts in our region.
Dr George Mathew is a former principal and HOD(GS), CMC Vellore