Beyond pledges: Make Paris climate targets binding now

The recent series of extreme weather events across the globe, such as severe wildfires in Western Europe, particularly in France and Spain, prolonged droughts across England and Wales during one of the continent's hottest summers, parts of North America engulfed by a deadly combination of heat, fire and smoke, and record-breaking temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, indicate that all is not well with planet Earth. Climate scientists emphasised that the frequency and intensity of these extreme weather events may be unprecedented, but definitely unsurprising, given decades of scientific warnings regarding the devastating effects of climate change. In the face of shifting challenges from climate change to climate emergency, it raises a serious question whether the global community has responded adequately to avert the impending catastrophe. Perhaps not.

When in 1990 temperatures of about +0.35°C to +0.45°C above the mid-20th-century baseline were recorded, marking the warmest year up to that point in history, the quantum of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) jumped to about 32.6 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 equivalent. In response, 178 countries at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 formulated the first global treaty, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), along with a resolution to hold annual climate talks (COPs) for stocktaking.

Subsequently, the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, designed as the first major global legal instrument to reduce GHGs, fell short of delivering desired outcomes. This was largely due to its common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) clause, which placed the burden of emission cuts on the industrialised world for its historical debt, while emerging economies had no mandatory targets. The US, a major polluter at that time, dropped out in 2001 after declaring the Protocol unfair and harmful to its economy. Many developed countries considered the agreement outdated since it did not cover the contributions of large emitters like the US and China, who share more than half the world's available carbon space.

As overall global emissions kept rising by 32% between 1990 and 2010, the world attempted a course correction by moving to the consensus-based Paris Agreement in 2015. This made 195 signatory countries liable to submit 5-year nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to restrict global temperature rise well below 2°C, and ultimately to 1.5°C. However, COP 30 in 2025, held a decade after the Paris Agreement, was not able to deliver a time-bound fossil-fuel phase-out agreement due to resistance from oil-producing and developing economies.

The US, for the first time, remained unrepresented at the summit, while the revised NDCs of 119 countries, responsible for 74% of global emissions, could collectively commit to less than 15% of the emission reductions required. This represents a fraction of what is needed to prevent overshooting the 1.5°C threshold by 2035. Meanwhile, the global South, including India, remained dissatisfied due to unfulfilled climate finance commitments that were legally mandated under the Paris Agreement.

Amid worsening environmental crises, prolonged armed conflicts across the world have further aggravated the situation. A new assessment reveals that the war in Ukraine over four years has caused CO2 emissions of about 311 million tons, with an estimated climate damage of nearly $57 billion. The Gaza conflict generated about 34 million metric tons of CO2e, comparable to the operation of over 7.5 million petrol-powered cars.

Furthermore, in the first 14 days of the US-Iran conflict, 5 million tonnes of GHGs were produced. Missile strikes on oil tankers and offshore assets in the Strait of Hormuz caused massive crude oil leaks, directly poisoning fragile marine habitats. Sadly, neither the Kyoto Protocol nor the Paris Agreement makes it compulsory for governments to report their military emissions.

On the tech front, the rapid march towards energy-heavy generative AI, which requires massive physical data centre infrastructure throughout its life cycle, is likely to more than double electricity demand by 2030. It is projected to rise from roughly 415 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 to approximately 945 TWh, releasing about 300 to 399 million metric tons of CO2.

Training a single large language model can emit over 626,000 pounds (284,000 kg) of CO2e, equivalent to the lifetime emissions of five average cars. As net emissions heavily depend on local power grids, countries like India, which are heavily reliant on coal, will face a much higher carbon footprint as tech usage expands.

Global GHG levels, combined with all long-lived gases, have reached a new high of approximately 539 to 542 parts per million (ppm) in CO2e, increasing atmospheric heat-trapping capacity by almost 54% since 1990. Earth's warming rate has risen from about 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015 to roughly 0.35°C to 0.4°C per decade over the last ten years, making climate disasters ever more destructive.

India registered a rise in surface temperature by approximately 0.7°C from 1901 to 2018, causing major shifts in precipitation, monsoons, and seasonal extremes (MoES & CEEW). A UN analysis noted that the world is severely off track and on course for 2.3°C to 2.8°C of warming. Unprecedented El Niño effects carry a more than 80% chance of making 2027 the warmest year on record. Studies suggest that 7.6% annual emission cuts through 2030 are imperative to reach the crucial 1.5°C threshold.

Global warming has become a textbook example of the tragedy of the commons. The Earth's atmosphere, as a shared and open-access resource, is fully exploited by certain countries and companies for short-term economic benefits, while environmental costs are borne globally by everyone.

To avert the looming crisis, pursuing the overarching goal of net-zero by 2050 is paramount. Enforcement deficits inherent in the Paris Agreement must be rectified by converting voluntary commitments into enforceable national policies to ensure accountability.

The Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) should be linked to international trade laws to introduce economic incentives and penalties for climate action or inaction. To achieve universal compliance, the massive funding gaps for developing nations must also be bridged without delay.

Archana Datta, a retired civil servant, was Press Secretary to the President; DG, AIR; and DG, Doordarshan