Did Jaya video help tilt scales at the RK Nagar bypoll ?

From being a sidelined leader losing the AIADMK leadership, party tag and the symbol to being a winner at the RK Nagar by-poll, TTV Dinakaran has finally emerged as a leader in Tamil Nadu, stunning the AIADMK and BJP rivals, besides cutting into a large chunk of DMK’s traditional vote bank.

The last-minute release of a 20-second video showing former CM Jayalalithaa during her treatment at the Apollo hospital here appears to have removed doubts against his Mannargudi family.

Besides, the perception that he had been harassed by the BJP government at the Centre worked to his advantage in the heartland of Dravidian movement as youth have begun to see him as a leader standing up against the Hindutva forces. Dinakaran’s arrest also seems to have earned him the sympathy of the women voters.

While 50.32 per cent of the voters supported TTV, his nearest rival AIADMK presidium chairman E Madhusudhanan secured 27. 30 per cent. This shows that both the candidates had received 77.30 per cent of the total votes, which is higher than the 55.87 per cent vote share of the party when former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa contested in the same seat in the 2016 Assembly elections.

The speculations of DMK having a tacit understanding with the BJP after Prime Minister’s visit to DMK president M Karunanidhi’s house and Stalin’s failure to dispel them may have hit the party’s anti-saffron base.

Also, factors such as Dinakaran’s arrest by the Delhi police, IT raids on VK Sasikala’s family and the Election Commission’s allotment of ‘Two Leaves’ symbol had raised suspicions that the Centre was harassing Dinakaran.

The DMK, however, which garnered 33.14 per cent votes during the last election, dipped to 13.93 per cent, losing its deposit. While the DMK had lost about 20 per cent of its votes, the combined vote share of the Dinakaran and Madhusudhanan had gone up by about 21 per cent, showing that DMK’s votes had gone to their rivals. Dinakaran and Madhusudhanan split the AIADMK votes between themselves, while DMK’s traditional voters opted for Dinakaran which resulted in the winner crossing the 50 per cent mark. This is a clear indication that Dinakaran ate into a huge chunk of DMK’s anti-saffron and minority vote base.

He visited mosques and churches, asking the minority leaders to stand by him and focussed on fishermen who were complaining that the central and state governments did not try enough to rescue their colleagues hit by Cyclone Ockhi.

Speculations are rife that DMK planned tactical voting to help Dinakaran’s to trigger the fall of the government and revive the AIADMK leadership tussle. It is, however, doubtful if a party will plan a strategy to lose its deposit amount and honour in a crucial bypoll.