Moody’s cuts GDP forecast to 7.3 per cent from 7.5 per cent

“The Indian economy is in cyclical recovery led by both investment and consumption. However, higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration. 

We expect GDP growth of about 7.3 per cent in 2018, down from our previous forecast of 7.5 per cent,” the report said. It, however, kept growth expectation for 2019 remains unchanged at 7.5 per cent. 

Moody’s further said: “On the domestic front, growth should benefit from an acceleration in rural consumption, supported by higher minimum support prices and a normal monsoon. The private investment cycle will continue to make a gradual recovery, as twin balance-sheet issues -- impaired assets at banks and corporates -- slowly get addressed through deleveraging and the application of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code.” 

Ongoing transition to the new GST regime could also weigh on growth somewhat over the next few quarters, which poses some downside risk to its forecast.