Note ban will put pressure on NBFCs for next 6 months: Moody’s

“NBFCs in India will demonstrate broadly stable asset quality, but delinquencies will likely rise over the next one-two quarters, as demonetisation adversely affects collections across asset classes,” Moody’s Investors Service said in its latest report released.

“It will add to the short-term adjustment pressure on India’s non-bank finance companies, but will not derail their growing franchise,” Moody’s added. 

The report is titled ‘Indian Non-Bank Finance Companies (NBFCs): Balancing Strong Growth with Rising Risks’.

Over the past three years, the NBFCs have gained some market share in the origination of retail lending, on the back of the faster growth exhibited by such entities when compared to the banks. 

This is particularly the case when compared to public sector banks, which face significant challenges on their asset quality and overall solvency profiles.

“Nevertheless, we expect that competitive pressures from the banking sector will remain intense as banks are increasing targeting of the retail segment to offset weakness in their corporate lending,” Alka Anbarasu, Moody’s VP and Senior Analyst, said. 

“In addition, retail lending, particularly housing loans, is more capital efficient for the banks,” Anbarasu added.

On funding, Moody’s said it expects that the NBFCs’ funding profiles would broadly remain stable.

“The NBFCs’ profitability and capital, as well as funding and liquidity levels, will stay broadly stable,” it said. 

Moody’s conclusion is despite the fact that - in line with the global trend - the funding and liquidity profiles of Indian NBFCs present key downside risks, particularly because of their dependence on confidence-sensitive market funding.

Moody’s said the NBFCs will maintain well-matched asset-liability profiles - despite their weak funding profiles - a situation which will protect them against downside risks.  “However, adverse market events have exposed them to volatility in refinancing and remain a key credit challenge,” it said.

The NBFCs are growing at a fast pace, and have gained market share in the origination of retail credit. 

“The performance of individual NBFCs varies widely, even as the sector as a whole shows better performance when compared to the banks. In addition, within segments - such as for housing finance companies - variation is also widespread, reflecting the nature of portfolios, as well as the ability to manage costs,” the report said.