The fact that the Tamil Nadu Power Distribution Corporation has agreed to pay power suppliers up to Rs 37 per unit to meet demand over the rest of the month indicates the urgency of the power shortage gripping the State.

While the terms for daytime supply are more moderate, this peak rate, meant to manage the evening surge in demand, is the highest paid by a State-run utility.

Understandably, this has invited political brickbats, especially because the TVK and its leader Chief Minister had criticised the then DMK government for paying Rs 20/unit.

With the normal onset of the northeast monsoon a couple of days away, the anticipated dip in temperatures, and consequently in the demand for electricity, has not happened this year. Power demand has remained at unprecedented levels this October, exceeding 20,000 MW compared to 17,000 MW last year.

With temperatures mimicking summer, demand this week has been reminiscent of the peak of 21,724 MW recorded on July 15 in the midst of a heat wave. With wind power generation plummeting at this very time, from the normal capacity of 3,000 MW to a negligible 10 MW, the State is facing a peak-hour shortfall of about 1,000 MW.

The situation might become worse if the northeast monsoon rains are delayed.

The power shortage in Tamil Nadu has already shown up in the form of unannounced power cuts lasting 6-8 hours in some districts. The situation has led to public protests with outages at the Secretariat causing some political embarrassment to the government.

While it is arguable whether this can be called a crisis or an adverse contingency, one that can be tided over if the rains come on time, the thing to do at this juncture is to manage the situation until longer-term corrective measures can be taken. The discom’s purchases at high cost are a part of such management. The contracted suppliers are all gas-based generators, who will be able to supply power at short notice. If in the eventuality their supply is not needed, the state only needs to pay them their fixed costs, which are low.

Tamil Nadu is not the only State facing a power crunch this season. A handful of other states, including Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in the South, are in a similar plight, due to a concomitance of several factors.

Weak monsoon rainfall has slashed hydropower output nationwide by 20%; scheduled maintenance of thermal plants has coincided with continuing high temperatures; and the drop-off of solar energy at sunset is contributing to night-time energy deficits in renewable-energy states like Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Gujarat.

In Tamil Nadu’s case, restrictions imposed on industrial consumers from directly buying power from private entities like the Indian Energy Exchange is adding to the pressure on the State grid.

Temporarily lifting such restrictions might ease the situation a bit, but contingency measures such as the one taken now are not enough to solve the problems besetting the State's power sector. The government needs to be more forthcoming on the problems it laid out in its own white paper released in June.

The State’s distribution network of ageing substations and transformers is susceptible to failure under heavy loads. Long-pending power generation projects have to be pushed if the State is to attain energy self-sufficiency. The big question of course is the capital needed: grid modernisation alone is estimated to cost Rs 2.47 lakh crore. That’s not an attainable target without the help of the Centre.