As armed hostilities continue across West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, fragile ecosystems are becoming the victims of escalating global militarism. While the human toll draws the most immediate concern, the environment remains a ‘silent casualty’, suffering through direct destruction, toxic legacies, and the collapse of governance.
War and military conflicts release huge amounts of environment-degrading pollutants, which have immediate effects as well as inter-generational impacts. As per available data (as of February 2026), in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the total war-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are estimated to be around 311 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO₂e), almost amounting to the annual emissions of France or half of Germany's yearly emissions. While the Israel-Gaza war produced 32.2 million tonnes of tCO₂e in just 15 months, the initial two weeks of the US-Israel-Iran war emitted over 5 million metric tonnes of tCO₂e, comparable to the annual emissions of medium-sized countries like Iceland or Kuwait. The ‘new oil war’ has exacerbated the already critical climate crisis, according to The Conflict and Environment Observatory.
The year 2025 was conspicuous by its record high in military spending of $2.63 trillion, representing a 2.5% increase in real terms, noted the Military Balance 2026 report by IISS. The top five nations — the United States, China, Russia, Germany, and India — accounted for over 60% of the world's total military budget. While the EU member states spent around €381 billion to €392 billion last year, about 2.1% of their total GDP, exceeding the 2% NATO guideline. Military spending now amounts to roughly 2.5% to 2.7% of global economic output, despite urgent warnings that military growth is directly jeopardising 1.5°C climate targets, and there exists a huge $4 trillion annual financing gap to meet the targets.
Global GHG emissions also reached a record high of 60.63 billion tonnes of tCO₂e in 2025, representing a 0.50% increase from 2024, with China leading at 17.4 billion tCO₂e, followed by the United States (7 Gt), India (4.22 Gt), Russia (3.2 Gt) and Indonesia (1.55 Gt), as per Climate TRACE. A 2024-25 study on ‘militarisation and emissions’ disclosed that for every 1% increase in the GDP share of military spending, total emissions rise by 0.9% to 2%, depending on how emission-intensive the country's economy is. As countries divert funding and innovation away from climate mitigation toward defence, the ‘dirtiness’ of an economy increases, reducing green patenting by 10% to 25%. In the case of NATO, if all 31 member states meet the 2% GDP spending target, it could result in the release of an additional 98 to 218 million tCO₂e annually.
While a 2022 scientific study assessed that militaries are responsible for around 5.5% of global GHG emissions (Global Responsibility and the Conflict and Environment Observatory), they remain widely excluded from mandatory reporting under global climate agreements, resulting in a significant ‘military emissions gap’. As per the UNFCCC’s 2025 update, many countries still fail to report or disaggregate their military emissions from civil sources. Even if some do so, they only report direct emissions, ignoring indirect emissions from weapons manufacturing and procurement, which can be ten times higher than direct operational fuel use. Moreover, climate experts insist on accounting for the entire lifecycle impacts of military activities, including post-conflict reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The Global Carbon Budget report, published at COP30, alerted that the current volume of global GHG emissions is about 10% higher than in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted, which is ‘a clear sign that the world is heading in the wrong direction’. The 2025 Emissions Gap Report, titled ‘Off Target’, also confirmed that global warming is likely to overshoot the 1.5°C threshold within a decade.
The current year is projected to be one of the hottest on record, particularly in South Asia, following three years (2023–2025) of unprecedented global warming. A recent study by the Climate Impact Lab analysed that heatwaves will increase premature deaths by over 90% by 2050, affecting mostly low- and middle-income countries. According to the 2025 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, heat-related deaths have risen by 63% since the 1990s, with an estimated 546,000 deaths annually—about one heat-related death every minute worldwide (based on 2012–2021 data). In 2024, more than 60,000 deaths occurred in Europe alone, while in 2025, at least 455 deaths were recorded in India between April and July.
Studies indicate that as a ‘threat multiplier’, extreme heatwaves seriously affect global food systems, and a single heatwave can slash agricultural productivity by 50%. By 2030, the world may lose 2.2% of total working hours, equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs. It currently costs the global economy roughly 1% of annual GDP, which is likely to go up to 3% by 2050 under current policies. In 2024, India lost an estimated 247 billion labour hours due to heat. A new study titled ‘Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon’ found India was one of the biggest victims, with an economic damage of $500 billion.
In September 2025, while releasing the report on ‘rebalancing military spending for a sustainable and peaceful future’, UN Secretary-General António Guterres underlined that the ‘international community must confront the stark reality that rising military expenditures are not yielding greater peace, instead undermining humanity’s shared vision for a sustainable future’. He urged a renewed approach to security based not on arms races, but on diplomatic cooperation, accountability, and improved security governance. It is high time for nations to focus on human-centred security through investments in health, equity, and sustainability, instead of a mindless arms buildup.
Archana Datta, a retired civil servant, was Press Secretary to the President; DG, AIR; and DG, Doordarshan