Hezbollah looms large over Gaza battle

Hezbollah’s shadow loomed large during Israel and Hamas’ two-week battle, with the possibility it could unleash its arsenal of missiles - far more powerful than Hamas’ - in support of the Palestinians. Instead, Hezbollah stayed on the sidelines. And if a ceasefire that took effect early Friday holds, another Israel-Hamas war will have ended without Hezbollah intervention.

For now, both sides had compelling reasons not to clash, including - for Hezbollah - the bitter memory of Israel’s punishing 2006 bombing campaign that turned its strongholds in Lebanon to rubble. Lebanon is also in the grips of an economic and financial collapse unparalleled in its modern history and can ill afford another massive confrontation with Israel.

For Israel, the Iranian-backed group in Lebanon remains its toughest and most immediate security challenge. “Israel needs to manage the conflict in Gaza with a very open eye toward what is happening in the north, because the north is a much more important arena than Gaza,” said Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli military intelligence chief who currently heads the Institute for National Security Studies. He spoke before the truce took effect at 2 a.m. Friday.

Hezbollah’s reaction during the 11 days of Israeli bombardment that engulfed Gaza in death and destruction was relatively mute. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, did not make any public comments, even after a Hezbollah fighter was shot dead by Israeli soldiers at the border during a protest last week.

Late Thursday, Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet approved a unilateral cease-fire to halt the Gaza operation, a decision that came after heavy U.S. pressure to stop the offensive. Hamas quickly followed suit and said it would honour the deal.

Throughout the current round of fighting, Hezbollah’s show of solidarity — including unclaimed rocket barrages from south Lebanon into Israel on three separate occasions in the past week — appeared carefully calibrated for limited impact. Most landed in open areas or in the Mediterranean Sea. The rockets are believed to have been fired by Palestinian factions based in south Lebanon, likely with Hezbollah’s blessing.

“The political message is ‘we are here,’ and safety for Israel from its northern border is not to be taken for granted and neither is the deterrent that was established in 2006” when the two sides fought each other to a draw, said Joyce Karam, an adjunct professor of political science at George Washington University.

At the tense Lebanon-Israel border, Hezbollah supporters wearing yellow hats organised daily protests over the past week. On at least one occasion, dozens of people breached the fence and crossed to the other side, drawing Israeli shots that struck and killed a 21-year-old. He was later identified as a Hezbollah fighter, and given a full-fledged funeral with hundreds in attendance.

Analysts said chances of Hezbollah joining in the fighting with Israel were low, particularly given the political and economic implosion happening in Beirut and the array of challenges the group faces internally with social tensions on the rise. Even among Hezbollah’s supporters, there is no appetite for a confrontation as Lebanese suffer under an economic crash that has driven half of the population into poverty.

Karam said both Hezbollah and Israel have been saying since 2006 that round two is inevitable, but its cost has only gone up for both sides. For the moment, both seem satisfied with keeping their tensions on Syrian territory rather than having another war in Lebanon. But each day brings closer the possibility of an unwanted conflict coming to bear. “For now, this paradigm seems to hold,” she said.

Associated Press