Survey says breakaway faction could dent AIADMK’s chances, giving DMK an edge

AMMK, NTK and MNM might act as a damage factor for both the AIADMK and DMK. The survey projects that DMK and its allies together might secure 167 plus seats while AIADMK and its partners might get 51 plus seats. In 14 constituencies, it would be a close contest.

Speaking to reporters in Tiruchy on Wednesday, Fr Gaspar said, around two years have lapsed since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, anti-incumbency wave continued to prevail in Tamil Nadu and it was likely to show in the Assembly polls also. Soon after Edappadi K Palaniswami took charge as the Chief Minister, the people had low expectation from him. But he managed to exceed people’s expectations. Still, more than 55 per cent are dissatisfied with Palaniswami’s performance as a Chief Minister, he said.

While the survey recorded a net loss of 7 per cent votes for AIADMK compared to the votes polled in 2016, the dip is attributed to the breakaway faction of TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK, which had chipped away around 4 per cent of traditional AIADMK votes. Further, youngsters aged below 25 were opting Kamal Haasan’s MNM and Seeman’s NTK. At the same time, DMK and its allies might secure 10 per cent votes in this poll, he said.

Around 16 constituencies in north western region, where Vanniyar and Kongu Vellalar communities have strong presence, might vote in favour of AIADMK alliance, Fr Gaspar said. The internal quota reservation for the Vanniyar community had made a positive arithmetic in the region for the ruling alliance. However, this internal reservation has captured a reverse consolidation of all other communities in other places and among denotified communities in the South.

Meanwhile, the survey predicted a clean sweep for DMK alliance in the Delta region, except two or three constituencies. The Delta districts has always remained a stronghold of the DMK and, this time, the Sasikala factor has knocked out the AIADMK alliance in the region, he said.

The race of third spot is between the NTK, MNM and AMMK. While NTK has a remarkable support from voters under the age group of 25 across the State, MNM has good base of urban and middle-class voters. However, it is not spread across the State.