Pandemic Will Taper Off By March But Vaccine Still Needed: Experts

Elaborating Dr John said, “the virus is tapering off as it is its nature. Wearing masks, social distancing and handwashing were advocated as preventive measures as otherwise, the increased caseload would have inundated the health care system.”

However, former CMC principal and chairperson of the scientific advisory committee to the ICMR-based National Institute of Epidemiology Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil told DT Next that “epidemiologists have been unable to locate the threshold immunity period for the coronavirus which was tentatively put as 70 per cent in rural areas and 60 per cent in urban areas.

This means 60 and 70 per cent of the population would have been infected and thus develop immunity.”

Referring to the decline in COVID-19 cases, he said: “For Vellore district, the peak period resulted in 200 positive cases being detected daily, whereas it now ranged between only 15 and 20 cases per day."

Asked if the vaccine was still necessary as the pandemic was tapering, Dr Muliyil said: “The vaccine is still necessary as a substantial portion of the population is still vulnerable to COVID-19. While the well to do and the rich were able to protect themselves by staying at home and avoiding outside contact, the poor did not have this luxury as they had to venture out to earn their livelihood. Thus they have to be protected and hence vaccination for them was still very important.”

However, the virus had a very low mortality rate especially for those below 40 years. “It is only those who are above 50 years who succumbed especially if they suffer from comorbidities,” he said adding the percentage increases with the advance in age with the figures being 80 per cent for those above 80 years.”

“Deaths were unreported as many aged persons lack the mindset for prolonged hospital stays and so when they die it is not attributed to the virus,” he said.