DMK set to be part of main national opposition block

With the high-decibel cacophony of national television media seemingly coming down, post Lok Sabha election-results, and the NDA crossing the 350-mark, the big question that is occupying the minds of the people is who will play the crucial role of opposition.   

As per constitutional provisions, a minimum of 10 per cent seats in Parliament ensures the position of the Leader of the Opposition -which translates to a minimum of 55 MPs in Lok Sabha. This calculation is based on the total number of seats won by a political party and not by its alliance front. Just being the single largest party in Parliament doesn’t guarantee that. This 10 per cent provision was spelt out by G V Mavalankar, India’s first Lok Sabha speaker.

India did not have a Leader of Opposition since the Nehru-led INC   was voted to office in 1952 and until 1969, since the party got absolute majority and no party had 10 per cent of seats.

The Leader of Opposition is a constitutional appointment, equivalent to a cabinet minister, and is part of the Central Vigilance Commission, Central Information Commission, National Human Rights Commission and National Judicial Appointments Commission. The speaker of the Lok Sabha is the final judge.

The Congress, the second largest party having managed only 52 seats in the just concluded election, is not eligible to be accorded the Leader of Opposition status. The same provision had prevented the Speaker of the 16th Lok Sabha from according this status to Congress in 2014, when it had only 44 seats. Thus, there will be no Leader of Opposition for the second time running.

In that case, in order to play a constructive opposition, Congress will have to close ranks with DMK, the third highest with its 23 seats and Trinamool Congress that has won 22 seats in the newly elected Parliament. The UPA front has a total of 92 members in the current Lok Sabha. While clearly DMK president M K Stalin has time and again given his party’s total support to Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, for Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress it is more a case of `enemy’s (BJP) enemy (Cong) is a friend’. But together, the Congress, DMK and Trinamool will be the main opposition block in Parliament.

Political experts feel Stalin is extending his ‘anti-Modi’ political strategy with his party MPs set to skip the swearing-in since Stalin did not get an invite. His anti-Modi stance is manifesting to his voters in grassroots Tamil Nadu that he is not flip-flopping in the face of Modi’s massive victory. This may add strength to his attempt at building a strong-leader brand for himself.

Stalin was also quick to telephone Congress president Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, as a sign of solidarity, following and urging Rahul Gandhi to stay on as Congress president. This indicates that despite a massive poll-debacle for the UPA, Stalin is standing by his alliance partner, thus signalling that DMK is readying itself to play a major role as an opposition party at the national level.

It’s an opportunity for the DMK to project itself as the lead opposition party and the task is cut out for its stalwarts, T R Baalu, Kanimozhi and A Raja, and the knowledgeable pack of parliamentarians who will need to raise issues of national importance and not just stick to Tamil Nadu issues.

This is bound to resonate with Tamil Nadu voters, who have voted on an anti-Modi undercurrent. To keep up the anti-Modi stance along with Stalin, neither  Mamata Banerjee nor  Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan and many in the opposition ranks are attending.

The Modi-Amit Shah combination is known to get even more determined to win after a defeat. PM Modi and his A-team have made it amply clear that they are not going to give up on their Southern Saffron dream.

Modi has made a reference to granting enough resources and bringing developmental schemes to the states where they have lost, in his post-victory address to the nation. Senior BJP leader Nitin Gadkari and other ministers have made statements that despite their defeat, they will continue to focus on development in Tamil Nadu, including constructing the Salem-Chennai Expressway and linking river Godavari to Cauvery to bring water to the state.

In West Bengal, Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee has learnt from her recent experience that the BJP juggernaut is unstoppable and that she can’t fight it alone. If she has to safeguard TMC’s survival in West Bengal’s state elections in 2021, with BJP quite determined to wrest control from her, she needs new political allies.

But the challenge here for the Congress would be to work out a clear understanding with TMC to make their leaders fall in line and put up a united front, that is not divided in its ranks.

If need be, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party can throw in their lot with the Congress without sounding negative. This may also present an opportunity to present their new face to their vote-banks, especially targeting their own states where elections are due in 2022.

In the Southern states, while till recently Chandrababu Naidu of TDP, K Chandrasekhar Rao of TRS, and Jaganmohan Reddy of YSRCP were being seen as the pillars of Opposition against the BJP, post-election-results, Naidu has been humbled and Jagan, who rode on the success thanks to silent support from the BJP has already acknowledged the BJP’s role in his victory and met the PM  within hours of Modi’s victory. The PM too in his first televised address post his victory, from the BJP headquarters in Delhi, had made it a point to congratulate Jagan.

The recent analysis of political dynamics in the election have shown that the people of India have by and large rejected the strategy of negative Opposition to the incumbent government. The results are a clear indication of this trend. Therefore, one lesson learnt is that the opposition has to play its role with full responsibility, free of poorly conceived slogans like “Chowkidar Hi Chor Hai” of Congress.

Keeping that in mind, this time around the opposition will have to be extra careful to display a role that exceeds people’s expectation by raising relevant issues backed by hard facts, without seemingly opposing the BJP government with unsubstantiated claims, like that of the much hyped  “Rafale” deal controversy by the Congress party. The Indian voters no longer seem to have an appetite to digest half-cooked stories.

Even though Mallikarjun Kharge, a Congress veteran and Dalit leader, stood up as a strong leader of Opposition in the previous Lok Sabha, he was seen as a no match to the assertive BJP speakers in Parliament, especially PM Modi. Congress needs a good eloquent leader to spearhead the opposition brigade in Parliament, showing its leadership, in a serious attempt to tilt the game of perception in their favour.

Someone like Shashi Tharoor, who has won from Thiruvananthapuram, and is one of the stars in the Congress’ dwindling list of winners, may be the choice this time. His oratory skills are unmatchable and his statesmanship skills are well-known globally.

Tharoor playing an important role in the newly constituted Parliament would also be seen as Congress giving the South a clear boost.

There is an opportunity for the opposition to re-engineer their strategy to turn the tide in their favour, not only with an eye on the next election in 2024, but also with to win about 30-odd forthcoming elections in states and union territories falling in-between.