Assembly bypolls: DMK camp divided over post result strategy

Party insiders say the DMK has more than a few options depending upon the bypoll results. If the DMK managers to win all 22 seats, the party would have the required numbers to stake claim to form the government. 

In the event of it falling short of the half way mark of 117 seats, the party could attempt to lure a few legislators from the rival camp.

That DMK treasurer Duraimurugan had predicted the fall of the EPS regime in a little over three weeks should give an insight in to the strategies being mulled by the party. 

Ironically, opinion is divided in Anna Arivalayam. Not all in the DMK camp are in favour of forming government even if the party gets the majority in the House. A section of party senior leaders considers it wise to go for snap polls even if the EPS regime falls short of majority.

“It is good to use the prevailing anti-incumbency against the ruling AIADMK and go for a full-fledged Assembly election. This would help us stay in power for the next five years,” a DMK functionary requesting anonymity said.

Taking comfort in the notice ordered by the Speaker against the three rebel AIADMK MLAs, he said, “That they (AIADMK government) are planning to disqualify three rebel MLAs indicates their fear that they will not put up a decent show in the bypolls. They are planning to scale down the overall numbers to reduce their requirement during a floor test.”

When contacted, political commentator Ravindran Doraisamy said, “The DMK is working to win all the seats. Their preparations and campaign sufficiently demonstrate that they are going for the 22 seats.” 

Should the DMK not win a good number of seats or the ruling AIADMK wins a handful of seats, the government would not be threatened anytime soon, and Stalin should be content with being the Leader of Opposition till the next election.

Significantly, a lot would depend on the results of the Parliamentary polls. If the BJP, which is an ally of the AIADMK retains power, the AIADMK regime would not be disturbed much. 

Leaders in both camps largely agree under condition of anonymity that EPS would continue if the BJP stays in power even in the case of the ruling AIADMK not winning enough seats to secure a simple majority. Both pundits and leaders concurred that there would not be an immediate change in power equation in the state after the results are out.

“Continuance of the AIADMK or change of government in Tamil Nadu will depend on the party forming the government at the Centre. Political situation at the Centre will decide if there would be regime change or status quo is maintained here,” opined political analyst Aazhi Senthilnathan.