Tight rope walk for EPS government with thin majority

The government has the support of 111 legislators out of the present strength of 216 since the 18 disqualified MLAs supporting RK Nagar MLA TTV Dinakaran will be unable to attend the House. DMK president M Karunanidhi will not be able to attend the House and Speaker P Dhanapal can vote only in case of a tie, bringing down the effective strength of the Assembly during voting to 214.

The government needs the support of 108 MLAs to pass the motion thanking the Governor’s address and it has 111 legislators now without the Speaker. The Opposition has a combined tally of 103 MLAs, including the DMK, Congress, IUML; Dinakaran has two supporters and three AIADMK allies backing him. If five MLAs crossed over to the opposition ranks in any motion, the government would be reduced to a minority and the motion would fall through. Besides, the absence of just nine legislators would be sufficient to defeat the government while passing new bills or carrying out motions.

The ruling party had already issued a whip to its members to be present in the House on all days of the session. It had also asked them to support government’s resolutions introduced in the House. Since a whip had been issued, cross voting would attract the provisions of anti-defection law.

The big consolation for the government is that the High Court had stayed floor test and the government would not fall even if the motion thanking the Governor is defeated. The legislators who resorted to cross voting could be punished with disqualification and they could not exercise their voting rights when the floor test is taken up.