High Court’s October 4 hearing may change Tamil Nadu political scene

The state politics is teeming with too many possibilities and never before in the past has the fate of the state government’s stability and the future of the ruling and opposition parties have hinged on a legal battle. 

The result of the legal fight could alter the political dynamics altogether or help the ruling party to maintain status quo.

Political commentator Karl Marx said, “The October 4 verdict can break the deadlock in state politics and end the confusion in the state. The verdict on the disqualification of 18 MLAs will be a major factor in deciding the majority of the government and the judgment on floor test too is equally significant for the government’s survival.” 

“Never before in the past, the state’s politics had fully depended on a legal battle. The stakes are high for every politician in the ruling and opposition parties.”

If the disqualification of 18 MLAs supporting the sidelined AIADMK leader TTV Dinakaran is upheld, it will enable Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami to go for an immediate floor test and show a working majority in the House, since 113 legislators will be sufficient when the working strength comes down to 215. This will give a reprieve for the government which can be assured of another six months in power. 

But, this will also bring the prospects of elections in 19 Assembly constituencies, including RK Nagar which already remains vacant. Holding elections to 19 seats will almost be similar to a mini-general election and a sweep by the principal opposition DMK will raise the tally of opposition to 117, triggering the likelihood of a regime change itself. 

Quashing of the disqualification order and to floor test is the worst scenario for the government which may collapse on the floor, leading of suspension of Assembly or its dissolution, besides triggering fresh elections after a spell of Governor’s rule. 

Analysts point out that the legal battle itself could be stretched further by the aggrieved party which could move the division bench of the High Court and further approach the Supreme Court.