Long-term vision behind the AIADMK merger

Even when they sit for negotiations to discuss the merger options, the first major hurdle will be the Chief Minister post. While both are expected to be involved in hectic lobbying for the top position in the government, the next step will revolve around key responsibilities in the party hierarchy.

Sources close to a former minister said that the present cabinet has no other go but to accept the demands of the rival group. 

Though the BJP has denied that it has no link in the intra-party affairs of the AIADMK, it might try to help O Panneerselvam group to win control over the government and party. 

The reason is simple, the OPS faction is more accommodative and responsive to their ‘directions.’ 

Moreover, the presidential election is coming up in July and the dispensation at the Centre is short by approximately 17,000 votes to ensure a victory. Because of this, it might not like to take a risk and would want to have a confidante at the top in both the government and the party to control the elected members. It may ask the OPS group even to issue a whip to support the BJP candidate in the presidential election.

Vetrivendan, a long-time member of a Dravidian party and political observer, feels that the new arrangement might not last long. 

“The only relief is that a second no confidence motion can be moved only after a gap of six months, that is in August only. Probably, TTV Dinakaran or his supporters will only try that option and some major parties in the state may help in their attempt from behind the screen with the hope that an early election will result in a change of guard in the state,” he adds.

Murali, a Sangh parivar member and a private company manager, who differs from the view of Vetrivendan, says, “The BJP may just watch the developments in the case of a no confidence motion. Right now, OPS has the mass appeal for his anti-Sasikala stand. This might continue for a year more or so. Further he has also been accepted as an active Chief Minister when he held the post for a brief period after former chief minister J Jayalalithaa’s death. So, if an early election is thrusted on the state, the BJP may strike an alliance with its best friend OPS and throw its full weight to make him the CM again. This bargain may also work in its favour as it will help the saffron party to win a few Assembly seats in the state.  If OPS manages to lead the alliance to victory, then he will be in full control of the party and the government. Then BJP will see to it that the alliance continued till the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and that will make the party win at least a double-digit number of seats in the Parliamentary polls.”

So, the present drama happening in the state is not just about saving the AIADMK government or ‘Two Leaves,’ but a long-term arrangement with a strategy aimed at 2019 Lok Sabha polls.