No winners in the game of money and manupulation

It could mean we are not going to have the election for at least a year or so, during which period, central agencies are going to take to task Chief Minister Edappadi Palanisamy and five ministers involved in buying voters, reportedly at the behest of AIADMK deputy general secretary TTV Dinakaran.

There is every possibility of the government wilting under pressure. Even if a handful of MLAs cross over to the OPS camp, it will, in all likelihood, fall. As no alternative government will be possible since the Opposition DMK is all for elections, the Assembly may be dissolved and we may see a spell of President’s rule for a year and fresh elections next year. 

If it all sounds too speculative, we have seen it happen before when the AIADMK split after MGR’s death in December 1987 into the Jayalalithaa and Janaki factions and the short-lived Janaki ministry, which contrived majority in the Assembly like  Edappadi did, but was dismissed, leading to President’s rule. Elections were held only in February 1989 and the two-way split of the AIADMK vote saw the DMK returning to power, ending Karunanidhi’s 13-year political vanavas. 

It was the Congress which played a key role then. Now it is the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not one to miss a chance to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu, now that there is a political vacuum as the Jayalalithaa is no more and the AIADMK is in tatters. He needs time to prepare the people of Tamil Nadu for a change. That is what the cancellation of the by-election and the I-T raids have given him. 

The raids have shown how entrenched corruption has become. The I-T probes into Health Minister C Vijaya Baskar and seizure of documents have exposed that Edappadi and five other ministers had been planning to spend a total of Rs 89 crore to ensure Dinakaran’s victory. 

Raids into quarries and a college owned by Vijaya Baskar and into the offices and residences of MGR Medical University Vice-Chancellor Geethalakshmi,  reveal a major scam in grant of licences to medical colleges. 

Hats off to Dinakaran who splurged money, knowing it would lead to annulment of the election. He knew Big Brother Modi was watching. Yet, he reckoned that with the State government in his hands, he could get away with it. He also assumed, wrongly, that the poll could be put off at best by a month or so, as the vacancy caused by the death of former CM J Jayalalithaa should be filled before June 2 when the six-month period will end. 

What he possibly did not know was that Sec 151A(b) of  the Representation of the People Act empowers the EC to postpone polls indefinitely. The six-month time frame will not apply if the “Election Commission in consultation with the Central Government certifies that it is difficult to hold the by-election within the said period.” 

The Election Commission has invoked this provision to cancel the election altogether on the ground that the atmosphere has been totally vitiated and time  needs to be given to clear the air and make it conducive to conduct free and fair elections. 

Until recently, Dinakaran maintained that his win could only be delayed, but not denied. After the death blow delivered by the EC, he is crying that the whole world is conspiring against  him—the BJP, the OPS faction enjoying Modi’s patronage and the DMK. In the end, he has played straight into the hands of Modi. 

Now that the polls have been cancelled, the EC will issue a fresh notification and call for nominations, maybe year or so later. During this period, the ministers will be subjected to CBI enquiry and the criminal proceedings against Dinakaran in FERA violation case will be speeded up. 

Unlike in the case of the Janaki Ministry, use of 356 is difficult after the Bommai judgment as the Edappadi government, however discredited it may be,  enjoys the support of 122 MLAs. A tenuous majority, but a majority nevertheless. 

Earlier, Modi as well as the DMK working president MK Stalin calculated that if the OPS camp got more votes than Dinakaran,  there would be desertion, leading to the fall of the Edappadi government. This is precisely the reason why, Dinakaran went all out to win, throwing rules to the wind. As voters of R K Nagar, corrupted by corrupt politicians were ready to settle for Rs 4,000 a vote, Dinakaran was sitting pretty. 

The Opposition could not match his money power. Stalin put up a local candidate in the hope that a two-way split might help his candidate romp home, as it happened in 1989. The OPS camp fielded old war horse and a local E Madhusudhanan, but had to resort to cheap gimmicks like holding a mock funeral procession, with a Jaya dummy propped on the replica of a coffin. 

The BJP, buoyed by the success of the party in UP, hoped the Modi magic would help and fielded film personality Gangai Amaran who spoke little and burst into songs at the drop of a hat. When it looked certain that Dinakaran might win after all, the EC cracked down, and for a justifiable reason. And the poll stands cancelled. This will certainly weaken Dinakaran’s hold on the puppet government of Edappadi. Sooner, rather than later, it will fall under the weight of its own contradictions. That is when the real battle will begin. The BJP’s immediate plan will be to consolidate its position in Tamil Nadu and project it as an alternative to the  Dravidian parties which have corrupted the system, of which the cash for vote is just a symptom. 

Cash for vote was tried out in a scientific way in Thirumangalam. It continued in the 2016 Assembly election also, leading to cancellation of polls in Aravakurichi and Thanjavur, where both the kazhagams continued to pour in money, despite repeated postponement. This time, what is shocking is the brazen way Dinakaran has gone about it. After all, his aunt Sasikala is in jail for corruption and Jaya stands discredited after her passing. He is a classical example of how power corrupts. 

When Sasikala showed undue haste in assuming the mantle of Chief Minister after Jaya’s passing, the Supreme Court in the assets case intervened, with its verdict in the DA case appeal. She brought Dinakaran back into the party and made him her deputy in the party so she could call the shots from the Parappana Agrahara jail in Bengaluru. Dinakaran showed equal haste in taking over from puppet Edappadi. Now he has been halted in his tracks.

The people are clearly ready for another election.  It is too early to say whether it will throw up an alternative to the two kazhagams which have been ruling the state for the past 50 years. 

The Congress is too enfeebled to throw up such an alternative. In any case, it is aligned with the DMK. Stalin will be the only major challenger to Modi’s game plans for Tamil Nadu. 

Given time, the BJP may win over youth on Modi’s plank of clean governance. Modi may succeed provided he plays his cards well. 

Before that, he has to change the negative perception about his indifference to protesting Tamil Nadu farmers is New Delhi, inadequate grant for debt relief to distressed farmers and other raging issues.