The Tokyo Olympics: Pressing ahead for prestige amid a pandemic

From the moment that Japan pitched to host the 2020 Olympic Games, its organisers have framed it as a symbol of recovery: from a decades-long economic slump, from a devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster and, after a year’s postponement, from a crippling pandemic. Now, as the organisers press ahead with plans to hold the Tokyo Olympics this summer, the event itself threatens to become a trial from which Japan may take years to recover. A series of health, economic and political challenges have besieged the Games. Even as the organisers decided last week to bar international spectators, epidemiologists warn that the Olympics could become a superspreader event. Thousands of athletes and other participants will descend on Tokyo from more than 200 countries while much of the Japanese public remains unvaccinated. 

The financial hazards are also significant — the Olympic budget has swollen to a record $15.4 billion, increasing nearly $3 billion in the past year alone and adding to long-standing doubts about whether Olympic Games pay off for host nations. And the Tokyo organising committee has been swamped by leadership chaos, with both the president and creative director resigning over the past month after making sexist remarks. Through it all, the fundamentally undemocratic nature of Olympic decision-making has grown only more glaring. With the Olympic torch relay set to begin on Thursday and the opening ceremony scheduled for July 23, Japan’s government is defying the wishes of much of the public. In polls, close to 80 percent say the Games should be postponed again or cancelled outright. 

“I don’t know any reason for why you would go out to watch these Olympic Games,” said Hyoung Min Yoo, 29, who works in finance in Tokyo. He had secured coveted tickets to swimming and track and field finals but now has no interest in getting anywhere near the Olympic Stadium or aquatics center. “I wish they could postpone the Olympics to the next next time,” he said. In the telling of the Olympic organisers, staging the Games this summer is something close to a moral imperative. The president of the Tokyo organising committee, Seiko Hashimoto, recently cited the “significant challenges” facing the world and the responsibility of the Olympics “to build a legacy for the future society.” But money, national pride and political obduracy are also at play. 

The International Olympic Committee, which is sustained largely by selling broadcasting rights, stands to lose perhaps even more than Japan if the event is canceled. Already, the I.O.C. has struggled to entice bidders for future Olympic Games as cities have decided to avoid the hassle and cost. In an effort to give itself breathing space, the I.O.C. broke with tradition in 2017 by simultaneously announcing the hosts of the next two Summer Olympics — Paris in 2024 and Los Angeles four years later. This month it picked Brisbane, Australia, as its favoured candidate for the 2032 event. 

Inside Japan, historical currents are also important drivers. The wartime cancellation of one Tokyo Olympics, in 1940, and the triumphant staging of another a quarter-century later are potent symbols of first regret and then rebirth. The seemingly unstoppable push toward the Olympics this time also reflects an often rigid Japanese bureaucracy, with some even drawing parallels to World War II, when the Japanese public did not want the conflict but no leader dared halt it. Then there is the matter of China. The Beijing Winter Olympics are less than a year away, and Tokyo wants bragging rights for hosting the first post-pandemic Games. If the Olympics fell through in Japan but were staged in China, that could give the Beijing government more fuel to assert that its authoritarian system is superior. 

Whatever the outcome of the Games this summer, they could have profound ramifications for the entire Olympic movement, which has relied for decades upon an idealised promise of inspiration and civic pride to support enormous expenditures and increasingly onerous demands on host cities. “When they say ‘the five rings,’ or if they show up with an Olympic symbol, they think they can command or demand anything,” said Satoko Itani, an associate professor of sports, gender and sexuality at Kansai University. “But people are increasingly saying ‘no.’” 

“This could be a turning point” for organisers, Itani added. “Unfortunately, I don’t think they have realised it.” The headaches for the Tokyo Summer Games long predated the pandemic. Two years after winning the bid, the government abandoned a sleek stadium design by a famous architect, Zaha Hadid, because the cost had ballooned to more than $2 billion. After work on a cheaper stadium design got underway, a construction supervisor died by suicide after overwork. The organisers scrapped their first logo after plagiarism accusations. The president of Japan’s Olympic Committee was indicted on corruption charges related to the bidding process. Out of fears of extreme heat in Tokyo, the I.O.C. moved the marathon to Sapporo, on Japan’s northern island, 500 miles from the Olympic Stadium. 

Taro Aso, the country’s finance minister, has described the Tokyo Olympics as “cursed.” 

For Japan, the prospect of recouping its costs has grown only more distant, after the Tokyo organising committee said on Saturday that it would not allow foreign spectators. Without these visitors, there is now little upside for hotels, restaurants and other tourist attractions. 

The organisers say that their focus is primarily on safety, and that they have earmarked $900 million in spending on measures to combat the virus. They have watched in recent weeks as other major sporting events — the Australian Open, the N.C.A.A. men’s and women’s basketball tournaments — have gone ahead. For the Games, some countries are pushing Olympians to the front of the vaccination line, and the I.O.C. has agreed to supply Chinese vaccines for those who need one. 

The organisers say vaccination will not be mandatory, however, and many athletes, delegates and others will be coming from places where vaccines are unlikely to be fully available. Japan itself will not start vaccinations for those over 65 until next month, and there has been no indication that athletes will be prioritised. 

Infections and deaths in Japan have never spiralled to the levels seen in the United States or Europe, but the country is still recording more than 1,000 new infections each day and dozens of deaths. The Tokyo region was under a state of emergency until Sunday, and the country’s borders remain closed to most overseas visitors. 

With more contagious and perhaps deadlier variants circulating around the globe, epidemiologists warn that the Tokyo Olympics have the potential to turbocharge the virus’s spread. 

Controlling the pathogen will be “almost close to mission impossible,” said Dr. Kentaro Iwata, an infectious disease specialist at Kobe University Hospital. “Cancelling the Olympic Games would be much easier.”