NEW DELHI: The silver market underwent a decisive structural shift in 2025, driven by prolonged physical supply deficits, inventory depletion and policy‑led supply constraints, a report said on Monday.
The report from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd predicted that silver would touch Rs 2,46,000 per kg in the domestic market.
The brokerage continues "to maintain a buy-on-dips approach with a staggered investment strategy."
"While the initial target of $75 on COMEX has been achieved, the firm reiterates its target of $77 on COMEX, equivalent to Rs 2,46,000 on the domestic market, with further revisions dependent on evolving market conditions," the report said.
The rally was not merely speculative but reflected "deep stresses between paper pricing mechanisms and physical availability," with mounting physical tightness and declining exchange inventories reinforcing that the rally is structural rather than cyclical.
"The widening disconnect between paper pricing and physical availability highlights deeper stress in global price discovery mechanisms,” said Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited.
The brokerage noted that COMEX registered stocks and Shanghai inventories showed sustained drawdowns through 2025.
The premium of Shanghai spot silver prices over COMEX futures, frequently ranging between $5 and $8 reflects the absence of sufficient physical supply to enforce price convergence, rather than temporary pricing inefficiencies, it said.
Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst – Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., said that persistent inventory drawdowns across key global hubs, weakening arbitrage between Shanghai and COMEX, and repeated delivery pressures have exposed the limited availability of deliverable silver.
The report noted that CY25 marked the fifth consecutive year of physical deficit in the silver market, with mine supply unable to match combined industrial and investment demand.