Multi-corner fight re-emerges to occupy Fort St George

CHENNAI: A simple revisit of the Assembly poll history since the late 1980s showed that a multi-cornered contest favoured the incumbent government, barring exceptions like the 1989, 2006 and 2021 Assembly polls when the party in power faced overwhelming public anger.

The split in AIADMK after MGR’s demise facilitated the DMK’s return to power despite Moopanar’s independent bid for Fort St George. A promising start by Vijayakant’s DMDK, which managed around 8 per cent in the maiden election, was not enough for Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK to stop the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance's juggernaut led by M Karunanidhi in 2006. The DMK-led alliance won well over 160 seats.

The outcome was no different in the 2021 Assembly polls when a three-cornered contest, notwithstanding the relative weakness of the AMMK–DMDK–AISMK alliance, worked to the advantage of the principal opposition party, of course, largely due to the 10-year anti-incumbency of the AIADMK regime.

The 2016 election was a classic case of a multi-cornered contest engineering a return of the incumbent when the regime was not so unpopular, or, as in the case of the current DMK regime, riding on the wave of welfare schemes' popularity, which likely could trump its anti-incumbency.

Vijayakant's re-run for the CMO was rejected outright by the masses, which gave an edge to the incumbent AIADMK in 2016. A scenario similar to it stares at the state now.

Suguna Diwakar, eminent journalist and political analyst says, "Vijayakant issued a battle cry against both DMK and AIADMK to pitch himself as an alternative. But, Vijay doesn't criticise the AIADMK. Though there were chances of criticising the AIADMK, he ignored it yesterday. Be it Keezhadi or Parandur or Murugan conference, he doesn’t criticise the AIADMK. A perspective was spun that after Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa’s demise, there was a leadership vacuum in TN. Stalin filled it in the DMK. But it remains in the AIADMK.

"Vijay and the BJP are only trying to exploit the vacuum. After PMK and BJP returned to the AIADMK in 2021, NTK was the only option after the 2016 polls. AIADMK is a party thriving on anti-DMK and charismatic leadership.

"After Jayalalithaa, with EPS lacking the charisma, Vijay will lure the young and new votes besides AIADMK and NTK votes. AIADMK and BJP votes will go to TVK as he will split anti-incumbency votes. DMK votes might go to TVK too. But it won’t be substantial enough to affect victory because the minorities look for a party that opposes the BJP strongly. TVK doesn’t oppose BJP as much as the DMK does. After the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai and free bus travel schemes, women's votes are tilting towards the DMK like the Dalit and minority votes."