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Monsoon hits Kerala, 3 days ahead of normal date

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) as well as private weather forecasting agency Skymet had predicted that the monsoon will hit the mainland on May 26 or 27.

Monsoon hits Kerala, 3 days ahead of normal date
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Both the forecasts were with a model error of plus or minus four days.

NEW DELHI: The Southwest Monsoon may hit the Kerala coast in 2-3 days but the onset might not be as strong as predicted earlier, according to some weathermen.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) as well as private weather forecasting agency Skymet had predicted that the monsoon will hit the mainland on May 26 or 27.

Both the forecasts were with a model error of plus or minus four days.

“According to the latest meteorological indications, westerly winds have strengthened in the lower levels over the south Arabian Sea and deepened. There is an increase in cloudiness over Kerala coast and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. Hence, conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon’s onset over Kerala during the next 2-3 days. Further, conditions are also favourable for the advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area during the same period,” the Met department said in its latest weather advisory.

“In all likelihood, the monsoon will hit the Kerala coast before June 1,” Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather, told Business Standard.

But Palawat warned that the onset may not be as strong as expected earlier because southwesterly winds haven’t gathered much pace.

“There won’t be any heavy downpour with the onset of monsoon and rains will remain within the range in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, which can be called a weak onset,” Palawat said.

Earlier, a senior Met department official discounted the fact that rains have been delayed. He said that though the monsoon did not arrive on May 27 but it was still within the range — which was plus or minus four days.

“For us, the onset of monsoon has not been delayed, because according to our (IMD’s) parameters, if the rain arrives within the standard deviation range, it is considered as a normal onset,” the IMD official clarified.

A timely onset of monsoon, though a good sign, does not guarantee a strong progress across the country.

However, if the rains arrive on time in the key agriculture regions of Central, North and West India, it could spur sowing of kharif crops where acreage this year is expected to be good.

This is due to remunerative returns to farmers in the just-concluded rabi harvest. Farm production depends not only on the quantum of total rains but timeliness and geographical spread of the monsoon.

Already, Skymet has said that monsoon in the first half of the 2022 season (June and July) is expected to be much better than the second half.

This could have a serious impact on the final harvest of crops because July and August are the most important months in terms of total quantum of rains in the four-month Southwest Monsoon season.

Last month, the IMD predicted that the Southwest Monsoon over the country as a whole in 2022 is expected to be ‘normal’ at 99 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The forecast is with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent. Monsoon between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered ‘normal’.

Earlier, Skymet had said that the Southwest Monsoon in 2022 was expected to be normal at 98 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Skymet’s forecast, too, is with an error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent.

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IANS
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