Editorial: Too soon to start the celebrations

Since its peak in mid-September, the overall case-load has been steadily and gradually declining, even though it spiked sharply in three or four states. What was approximately a million active cases is down to around 6,95,000. As recovery rates improve, the daily death rate has been falling in tandem. In Tamil Nadu too, the number of active cases, which almost touched 60,000 at its peak is down to 34,198.

While it is too early to start popping the champagne, it is time to reassess the situation on the ground and strengthen the measures to extend the decline. Even those academics whose mathematical models suggest that the peak is over have cautioned against letting one’s guard down. Any model, after all, is based on presumptions such as people will continue to wear masks, wash hands, practice social distancing and avoid large gatherings. It is the last two issues that loom troublingly over the country as it enters the festival season. The question is whether we are mature enough to recognise that festivals in the time of a pandemic like this require large-scale behavioural change. The answer, going by some reports of crowds violating COVID-19 norms and thronging some puja pandals in Kolkata, is that we may not be.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to the nation was aimed at highlighting the fact that this is no time to lower the guard and be careless. Describing the existing situation as stable, he said the task was to improve on this and prevent any deterioration. The Prime Minister is aware of the upcoming festivals – which include Navarathri, Ayudha Puja, Durga Puja, Deepavali, Chhath, Eid-Milad-un-Nabi, Guru Nanak’s birth anniversary – have the potential to change the course of the virus’ spread. All it needs is a few superspreader events to undo what has been achieved. He must have also noticed the start of the second wave in Europe, as a result of the onset of the cold season and the relaxations in restrictions.

With the development of anti-virus vaccines on the horizon, we could be on the home stretch in this race to defeat the coronavirus. From all accounts, we will be ready for rollout by early next year. Of course, the efficacy of the vaccine and the speed at which it can be rolled out and administered to a significant part of the population are questions to which they are no clear answers. But these are issues that every country in the world will be grappling with once the testing protocols are over. But as a nation, the last thing we need is to blow everything we have gained by violating COVID-19 norms on a round of celebrations.