India to get average rainfall this monsoon: India Meteorological Department

The monsoon is the lifeblood for India’s farm-dependent $2 trillion economy and nearly two thirds of India’s 1.3 billion people depend on agriculture for a living. Monsoon rains this year are expected to be 96 percent of the long-term average, K. J. Ramesh, director general of the state-run India Meteorological Department, told a news conference. 

India’s weather office defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season beginning June. “We expect normal climatological distribution of rains and we also expect the trend of higher agricultural production and economic growth to continue,” Ramesh said. 

Monsoon rains will arrive in Kerala by June 1 and retreat from the western state of Rajasthan by September, the department said. “The monsoon forecast is reassuring given all southern states in India are seeing a water crisis ...,” said Rupa Rrege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Finance Holdings. Despite last year’s average rains, farmers in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu and some parts of the western state of Maharashtra are still struggling with dry conditions due to patchy rains there.

The first stage forecast of Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall was issued by Indian Meteorological Department(IMD) in New Delhi on Tuesday. IMD issues various monthly and seasonal forecasts of rainfall for the southwest monsoon season (June to September). Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast was issued on Tuesday and the second stage forecast will be issued in June.