India a 10 trillion dollars economy by 2030?

“India started off to rapid growth a little later than China, but now it has the potential to accomplish in the next 15 years what China did in the last 15 years. Today, India’s GDP stands at about US 2 trillion dollars and it has good prospects of rising to $10 trillion in the next 15 years,” Panagariya said, addressing the India China Investment Conclave at Ficci. “What China has accomplished in last 15 years is very impressive. It (China’s economy) has gone from US $2 trillion 15 years ago to US 10 trillion dollars today.” NITI Aayog is preparing a 15year vision blueprint which will provide a road map for developing India into a big economic powerhouse with inclusive growth. 

Analysts say Indian economy will have to grow at over 10 per cent in the next 15 years to hit the US $10 trillion level. On bilateral co-operation, Panagariya said, “With China promoting out-bound investment and India seeking foreign capital and technology, it should enable us to take advantage of the synergies and put in place a vigorous framework to strengthen bilateral investment relationships.” There is much scope for India to benefit from Chinese experience in the manufacturing sector and transform the country into a modern urban economy, he opined. Panagariya termed India and China as “two rare bright spots” in an otherwise sluggish world economy. “Despite a decline in growth rate, China contributes a handsome US $500 billion or more to annual growth of the global economy,” he said. His Chinese counterpart Xu Shaoshi, Chairman of National Development and Reform Commission (China) (NDRC), said: “China and India are two important forces. There is a need for the two countries to go beyond bilateral relationships.”

The market for India’s fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry is projected to touch $104 billion by 2020, according to a ASSOCHAM-TechSci Research report. FMCG is the fourth largest sector in Indian economy and provides employment to around 3 million people accounting for approximately 5% of the total factory employment in India.  Growing at an impressive compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.6 per cent, this rise is from the present level of $49 billion. Steady economic growth, increasing share of organised retail, improving awareness about health and ethnic products being launched by the likes of Patanjali and a favourable demographic dividend are the reasons cited for the growth trajectory. Currently, India accounts for a share of just 0.68% of the Global FMCG market, this share is expected to increase significantly over the next 5 years mainly due to the macroeconomic factors, according to the study titled ‘Indian FMCG Market 2020’. Major FMCG markets include USA, China, European Union and Japan. Globally, the FMCG sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4%, much slower than India. Many FMCG MNCs have their presence in India. Globally, the FMCG companies have now shifted their focus on E-commerce due to the increasing mobile internet penetration. Online sales of FMCG products share accounted for around 5% in 2015, relatively higher than India where online FMCG sales accounted for a share of just 1-2% of the overall FMCG market in 2015. The growth in the country’s FMCG sector is being fuelled by improving scenario in both demand as well as supply side.