Peace hustle: Middle East mirage rising
Trump’s mix of bullying, flattery and exaggeration was on full display Monday in his addresses to the Israeli parliament and to more than 20 world leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt
“You create your own reality. Truth is a malleable thing.” — Roy Cohn to Donald Trump in The Apprentice.
Listening to President Donald Trump tell Israelis and Arabs on Monday that they were at “the historic dawn of a new Middle East” was like watching him pitch bankers on building the biggest, most beautiful hotel in the world—on a toxic waste dump. On the one hand, you think: This man must be crazy. Doesn’t he know the history of this place? You can’t build a hotel there. On the other, a voice whispers: What if he can?
Trump’s mix of bullying, flattery and exaggeration was on full display Monday in his addresses to the Israeli parliament and to more than 20 world leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. No traditional diplomat would have advised him to declare that we are on the road to Middle East peace — and that he, Donald Trump, will chair the “Board of Peace” to deliver it. But Trump went to business school, not the School of Foreign Service. He believes he can cajole, muscle and bluster this conflict to a happy ending.
That same strategy brought him multiple bankruptcies in real estate and two terms in the White House. So I’m not betting for or against him. But here’s some free advice, Mr. President: to get this deal done, you need to move fast and break things.
So far, I don’t see it. There’s no UN resolution on the table to create an Arab or international peacekeeping force to oversee Hamas’ disarmament in Gaza. No money has been pledged for reconstruction. No one seems to know who will appoint or manage the Palestinian technocrats expected to replace Hamas — which, by the way, is already reasserting control.
As a journalist, if I wanted to know what’s happening next, I wouldn’t know whom to call. That’s a prescription for trouble.
Because, Mr. President, what got you to this ceasefire and hostage deal won’t get you to peace — unless you lay down the law with both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas’ patrons in Turkey, Egypt and Qatar. You don’t have a second to rest. As hard as the first stage was, you haven’t even seen hard yet.
You need to say to Netanyahu: “I twisted your arm to get you this far. I even tried to get you a pardon. But are you with me or against me in the next phase? Are you going to move to the centre and form a coalition that can work with a reformed Palestinian Authority — or keep playing the old game of propping up Hamas in Gaza to claim you have no partner for peace?”
And to Qatar, Turkey and Egypt — and any Arab states sending troops to Gaza — Trump must ask: “Will you force Hamas to disarm and clear the way for the Palestinian Authority’s return, or play footsie with Hamas as it tries to reassert control?”
Hamas has hinted it would hand over civilian rule in Gaza, but it has never publicly committed to disarm. Trump insists, “They said they’re going to disarm, and if they don’t, we will disarm them.” Maybe. But if Hamas refuses, Netanyahu will seize the excuse to restart the war and dodge the political land mines ahead.
There is no path — none — to a wider peace without Hamas being replaced by a reformed Palestinian Authority and without Netanyahu either forming a centrist coalition or being replaced by Israeli voters.
Trump will soon discover that for any Gaza peace to spread, he must bring the PA back into Gaza fast. The PA ran the strip before Hamas ousted it in 2007 under a legal and economic framework hammered out in the Oslo Accords. That framework just needs dusting off. Trying to reinvent Gaza’s governance from scratch is a mistake — it will take months, and Hamas will exploit the vacuum.
The only reason the PA has been kept out is Netanyahu’s political need to avoid a unified Palestinian leadership. But his political interests have never aligned with US interests in achieving permanent peace. Trump needed Netanyahu’s cooperation to reach this point, but now he needs to steamroll over him to reach the next.
The only long-term solution is a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, its borders negotiated with Israel. That state must be run by a reformed Palestinian Authority, supported by an Arab and international peacekeeping force to guarantee Israel’s security, and backed by an international “Board of Peace” to ensure economic success.
To get there, Hamas must be disarmed, the Palestinian Authority reformed and reinstated, and Netanyahu either moved to the centre or out of power. None of the current players, as they stand, are partners for lasting peace.
May their transformations — or disappearances — happen quickly.
The New York Times
