Loyalist struggles as Trump’s demands grow

As much as any other world leader, Claudia Sheinbaum has gained the reputation of a Trump whisperer. Over and over, the Mexican president has entered tense negotiations with President Trump and — to the surprise of many — exited with praise. “I like her very much,” Trump said in the Oval Office in February. “I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for President Sheinbaum,” he said after pausing tariffs against Mexico in March.

But the honeymoon seems to be ending. Over the past several months, Trump has amped up his intense pressure campaign on Mexico with a multipronged offensive that has squeezed Sheinbaum, put her on the defensive and left her with few options to react.

The US has deployed nearly 10,000 troops at the Mexican border; accused Mexican banks of money laundering; threatened layers of devastating tariffs; revoked the visas of certain Mexican politicians; and declared several Mexican drug cartels terrorist outfits.

At each step, Sheinbaum has grit her teeth and stressed that there was a red line Trump must not cross: infringing on Mexico’s sovereignty, particularly with unilateral military action. Then, news broke this month that Trump had secretly directed the Pentagon to explore military action against cartels. “There is not going to be an invasion,” Sheinbaum responded. “That is ruled out.”

Four days later, her government delivered more of what U.S. officials have demanded, sending 26 people accused of being high-level cartel operatives to the United States. It was the second such transfer this year — involving 55 alleged cartel members in all — both outside the normal legal process of extradition. Two days after that, Trump told reporters that, because of him, Mexico finally respected the United States again: “Mexico does what we tell them to do,” he said.

Sheinbaum is exasperated, according to four people close to the government who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. She and her Cabinet feel frustrated that they have spent tremendous time and attention to meet what they see as Washington’s tall demands, according to the people, and yet it never seems to be enough.

In nine months since Sheinbaum took office, Mexican authorities have stepped up action against the powerful cartels that dominate much of the country, arresting more than 30,000 people accused of high-impact crimes. In six years under her predecessor, authorities arrested 12,300 people accused of being cartel members.

During her presidency, murders are down, drug seizures are up, and illegal border crossings have nearly ground to a halt. But fentanyl continues to slip across the border. US authorities have also complained of signs of dysfunction and hesitation among their Mexican counterparts to combat the problem.

The White House soon repeated a demand that Mexico do more against the cartels, with Trump threatening new 30% tariffs on Mexican imports.

Sheinbaum then talked her way into another delay. After a conversation between the two presidents, Trump suspended those planned tariffs for 90 days, saying the countries would seek a trade deal instead.

But tensions flared again last week when the US Drug Enforcement Administration announced a “bold bilateral initiative” against cartels between American and Mexican authorities. Sheinbaum quickly responded that she had no idea what the agency was talking about.

She said the agency would just train four Mexican police officers and, during multiple news conferences, criticised the DEA for overstating the extent of any cooperation.

At the same news conferences, she has said a broader security partnership with the United States was coming. A person close to her government said the two nations essentially agreed on a plan that lays out joint action and intelligence sharing, while stipulating that Mexico’s sovereignty must be respected. Sheinbaum is set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his visit to Mexico next week.

Lila Abed, a former Mexican official who runs the Mexico Program at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, said Sheinbaum was in a highly difficult position.

“The problem here is that there aren’t clear metrics to measure whether what Mexico is doing is enough,” she said. “President Trump and his team really can change the goal posts at any time.”

Looming over all of the talks is the reality that Mexico’s economy is built around the US, with $1.2 million in cross-border trade a minute, according to Mexico.

“Does she have a choice?” Abed said. “The alternative might be even more dire for the prospect and future of her administration.”

The New York Times