Facing widespread civil unrest, the Iranian administration has responded with an offer of talks with the representatives of the protestors. President Masoud Pezeshkian took to social media, asking the Interior Minister to listen to people’s legitimate demands.
The acknowledgement of demands as legitimate indicates either political pragmatism or helplessness, or both. A dialogue mechanism would be set up, but it is not yet clear who will be invited to talks.
From media reports, it appears that the wave of protests sweeping several cities, starting with the capital Tehran, was spontaneous. Over four days, it spread from groups of shopkeepers and merchants to students and the general public. If one were to go by Western media, what started as a popular outrage over the economic crisis is gradually metamorphosing and snowballing into a political movement against the regime.
The Iranian economy has been in dire straits for some time now due to Western sanctions.
The depreciation of the Iranian currency Rial, which lost nearly half of its value against the US dollar, and a 42 per cent inflation, which experts say could lead to hyperinflation, have adversely impacted the standard of living of common people.
During the US and Israeli attack, Jerusalem was hoping in vain of a mass upsurge to overthrow the government. Though people’s patience was wearing thin, they exercised restraint in the face of enemy assault, a fact acknowledged by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
But now that people have taken to the streets, Iran’s president is talking about the “full-scale war with the US, Israel and Europe” and their efforts to destabilise the country.
There is a modicum of truth in his assertion, as the US, Israel, and the Iranian dissidents propped up by the West have predictably expressed support to the protestors.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his policy of exerting maximum pressure on Iran, and the subsequent US and Israeli attacks, have derailed nuclear talks and re-imposition of sanctions, measures that Iran maintained were illegal and unjust.
The sanctions not only had a debilitating impact on an already weak economy but also had health and living standards. Water shortage and power outages worsened life during the harsh winter.
Large numbers of families lost their middle-class status due to the continuous erosion of purchasing power and inflation.
The Iranian government does not have much leeway or room to manoeuvre to address the crippling economic crisis. Increasing wages but without increasing taxes is a difficult proposition.
Likewise, improving trade with regional partners, too, would take time. A section of parliamentarians is seeking currency reforms to strengthen the Rial. It remains to be seen if the change in guard at the central bank would make a difference.
The US, Israel, and Europe would continue to put pressure on Iran, hoping that the protests would further weaken the regime, or even result in its ouster. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump, who has characteristically threatened military action if Iran pursues its nuclear ambitions. This does not augur well for Iran, though the country’s leadership is putting up a brave front, saying it would repulse any attacks. In every theatre of war in the Middle East and elsewhere, it is civilians who lose. And, Iran is not an exception.
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