Editorial: Resetting ties with Carney 2.0

The Canadian voters appear to have voted against US President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance threatening trade and sovereignty in re-electing the Liberal Party, which they hope will give a fitting reply. The party’s new leader, Mark Carney, literally snatched victory from the jaws of defeat as the opposition Conservative party had a 20-point edge in the initial stages of the race. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had set the “Canada First” narrative, focusing on domestic pain points such as rising living costs, lack of affordable housing and policy failures of the incumbent government. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, Trump’s tariff war and statements undermining Canada’s sovereignty torpedoed their campaign so much so that Poilievre, who was eyeing the prime minister’s chair, ended up losing his seat. Such was the backlash from across sections of voters who responded to Carney’s unequivocal anti-Trump plank in sharp contrast to the Conservatives’ low-key stand. The Conservatives can, however, be credited with depriving the Liberal Party of a clear majority. However, at least in the early months, in the face of continued threats from the US, smaller parties like Bloc Quebecois and New Democratic Party and even the Conservative party will be constrained to lend support to the common goal – a new trade deal and averting the threat to sovereignty.

The focus will now shift to how the new government will deal with the mighty US. Carney spoke with Trump, who, in turn, has congratulated him on his victory. Carney is talking about the lessons to be learned from the “American betrayal”. The US is not keen on turning the clock back, and Canada cannot afford to. Both countries have to do some hard bargaining and negotiations to come up with a new deal. Canada insists that it will be between two independent, sovereign nations and this time, on Ottawa’s “own terms”. Having felt the US sting, Canada will simultaneously be looking to strengthen relationships with Europe and Asia to hedge against excessive dependence on its southern neighbour. The outcome would depend on how well Carney, the economist/banker-turned-politician, will strike a balance between business pragmatism and non-negotiability on security and sovereignty in the face of unpredictable provocations and tough talking by the White House.

The Canadian election results are going to ring alarm bells among Conservatives in other countries as they will find it difficult to escape Trump’s sweeping negative influence across nations. And, like Canadian conservatives, they will not be able to clearly distinguish themselves from American conservatives in politics, policies and rhetoric. The excesses of Trump and his administration would scare sections of voters away, causing substantial electoral losses.

Given the rising tensions between the then Trudeau-led government and India over an alleged Indian hand in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, New Delhi would have liked and hoped for a Conservative win. However, that was not to be. Foreign policy wonks might see a blessing in disguise even in the victory of Liberals and the loss suffered by the New Democratic Party, which is led by a pro-Khalistani leader. Both countries might want to reset the ties. Though the Nijjar case can neither be wished away entirely nor swept under the carpet, geopolitical pragmatism demands that the two countries find a middle ground where they ensure that the legal proceedings do not cast a shadow on bilateral relations and vice versa.