The atmosphere in the region along the border between Lebanon and Israel is already pretty close to what war feels like.
Unmanned Israeli drones whiz through the air, the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia exchanges fire with the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), and most civilians have left the region on both sides of the border. "I fear that Hezbollah drags us into a war that we, the Lebanese, have nothing to do with, and Lebanon is not ready for war," a 40-year-old resident of Beirut, who asked to not publish his name for fear of retribution, told DW. "Everything in the country, including hospitals and infrastructure, is unprepared."
Meanwhile, many Lebanese have started stocking up on non-perishables and water, at least those who can afford it amid the economic crisis and the freefall of the currency.
After weeks of limited fighting that started with Hezbollah's attacks on Israel's north on October 8, a day after the terror organisation Hamas carried out the deadly attack on Israel with around 1,200 dead and 240 kidnapped people, the situation seems now on the brink of escalation.
So far, 188 Lebanese have been killed, including 141 Hezbollah members as well as the Beirut-based Hamas's deputy chief Saleh Arouri, who was assassinated by Israel on January 2. Also, 14 Israelis, including nine Israeli soldiers have been killed, according to a tally compiled by the French news agency AFP.
"I would say we are to some degree already in a regional confrontation," Kelly Petillo, Middle East researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.
Meanwhile, international efforts to de-escalate the situation are running at a clip. Hezbollah's military wing is considered a terrorist group by several countries, including the US, and the European Union as well. So representatives from those countries and blocs won't negotiate with Hezbollah directly.
Since October 8, Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has repeatedly said he wants to prevent Lebanon from entering into war. But that alone isn't enough to reduce the risk of war.
"What the Lebanese government does or doesn't do does not really matter here in the end," Heiko Wimmen, Lebanon project director at the non-governmental conflict prevention organization International Crisis Group, told DW. "The actor that decides the course of the conflict is Hezbollah." Wimmen sees that the Lebanese population and the Lebanese government are "bystanders" at best. "Hezbollah follows its own strategic interests which are not necessarily identical with Lebanon's interests," Wimmen said, adding that "Hezbollah is part of the regional coalition [also called Axis of Resistance] with Iran and other actors, who have much larger political objectives than defending Lebanon or preserving its stability."
The Axis of Resistance, an Iran-led regional alliance that also includes Hamas in Gaza, Lebanon's Hezbollah and various Iraqi paramilitary factions, considers the US and Israel the enemy. However, David Daoud, senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defence of Democracies highlighted in an op-ed Hezbollah is not entirely detached from Lebanese ground either.
Kelly Petillo from the European Council on Foreign Relations puts emphasis on the fact that Hezbollah and Iran have been calibrating their responses to the Israeli killing of the Hamas leader in Beirut so far despite the increasingly harsh rhetoric and the current escalation.