Where are the rains?

Two weeks after the north-east (NE) monsoon set in (October 30) over Tamil Nadu, Chennai is yet to receive a good bout of rainfall. Water managers in the city are beginning to worry if there would be enough rains in the coming weeks, although no one is ruling out the possibility of more showers during this monsoon season. 

So far, Chennai and surrounding areas have received a total of 79.2 mm of rain (until Nov 9) against an average normal rainfall of 390.2 mm during this period. However, all is not lost yet as weathermen predict that one or two good spells could bridge the gap and ensure that the city reservoirs have enough water to meet the city’s needs. 

“Even this year, there is a high possibility for heavy to very heavy rains around the end of November or early December, as a new tropical storm is likely to develop and such cyclones are expected to form in the northern part of the Indian Ocean after November 20,” said a weatherman. While public memory is still fresh with memories of heavy floods and inundation, the rainfall received during last year’s NE monsoon was just 1,664 mm whereas the city received a total of 2,108 mm during the year 2005 which was the highest rainfall during the NE monsoon in the last ten years. Similarly, Chennai region recorded a low rainfall in 2012 and 2013, when a total of 437 mm and 595 mm rainfall were recorded respectively. However, meteorologists say that people cannot predict exact rainfall because monsoon could revive even in December, as was the case last year.

Dr S Balachandran, Director, Area Cyclone Warning Centre, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai told DTNext that though they kept themselves updated about the cyclone and rainfalls, sometimes the prediction could go wrong. When asked why the forecast centre did not give exact information whereby the city could have been better prepared in 2015, the meteorologist said that usually, predicting north-east monsoon is rather difficult every year, as the depression keeps changing direction due to unexpected wind patterns. “However, one day science will improve and we can predict more accurately,” he said. 

Meanwhile, city-based weather bloggers say that although Chennai witnessed heavy rains and floods in 2005, the 2015 December downpour was different, as the city struggled to cope with the inundation. Srikanth K, who blogs in Chennaiyil Oru Mazhaikkaalam said, “In 2005, the north-east monsoon set in on October 12. Rainfall was distributed over the three month period in that year.” The blogger added that Chennai received heavy downpour in four distinct phases within a short span of six weeks and it created calamities in Chennai in 2015.

Similarly, Pradeep John, another weather blogger said Chennai witnessed torrential rains in the years 1976, 1996, 1985, 2005 and 2015 respectively. “It is a fact that in the past, whenever there were heavy rains, water would not stagnate but recede and there will a steady, free flow. Due to rampant urbanisation and construction of commercial establishments in the city, there is no way for rainwater to flow, resulting in floods,” he said. He added that there should be a strong mechanism, in which the concerned officials prepare a blue print to prevent floods and also catch channel the run-off water scientifically. 

Residents, for their part, cannot forget the previous floods. “Apart from 2015 floods, I still remember how the 2005 rainfall rendered me homeless and I was waiting for food among the crowd near MGR Nagar, where there was a stampede, in which over 40 people were killed,” said P John, an auto driver of MGR Nagar. He added that his family underwent mental agony during last year’s floods as well, when their house became water-logged.