2016 poll: Trial by fire for small parties

The biggest challenge for them is either to win the state party status or retain it, if they are already one in Tamil Nadu. In most of the elections in the past, these small parties managed to get the required vote share or the number of MLAs to retain the state party status by aligning with either AIADMK or DMK. 

But this time, their real vote share and their position in the state will be clearly out on May 19. How many will make it to the House of People with the required number of members or will poll the minimum percentage to remain a state party will be an interesting subject in this election. Beyond this, poll pundits  say that we have to wait and watch how many manage to retain their deposits. 

The following are the conditions to be recognised as a State party: 

(i) At least one member to the House of the People for every twenty-five members of that House or any fraction of that number from that State, or 

(ii) At least one member to the Legislative Assembly of that State for every thirty members of that Assembly or any fraction of that number; 

(iii) that the total number of valid votes polled by all the contesting candidates set up by such party at the last general election in the State to the House of the People, or as the case may be, to the Legislative Assembly of the State, is not less than six per cent of the total number of valid votes polled by all the contesting candidates at such general election in the State. 

For those parties which satisfy these conditions, it will turn out to be a big advantage for two reasons — one, it will give the parties a clear picture of their influence in the state, even region-wise, and two, it will help them to lead an alliance or increase their bargaining power with other major or small parties in the 2019 general elections and 2021 Assembly polls.

Gnani, a political observer, says there is a clear and visible change in the mindset of electorate, who are in a mood to reject both the Dravidian majors. “Even the traditional vote bank of the DMK and the AIADMK may be eroded due to the shift in the stance of voters. So the coming election is going to be a decisive one even for big parties,” he feels.

Badri Seshadri, another political analyst, says when it comes to deciding factor votes, the divided situation will work in favour of the fringe parties. But the pattern of voting of this section has to be keenly watched. Among the factors that may cause sub-polarisation of these votes are a section of the deciding group may not like to vote for the Left parties or VCK. So such votes may go to the PMK. Similarly, another section may not back Ramadoss; these votes may swing in favour of the PWA-DMDK front. 

Ultimately, with so many likely divisions in the voting pattern, this election is not only a challenge for every party but also a touchstone to prove their strength to emerge as an alliance leader in the next few elections.

Another crucial element to be watched is  NOTA. There is confusion among voters over the third option. A sizeable number may opt for the 49-0 option. This time due to the multi-cornered fight, the cases of the voters pressing this button may be very high as compared to the previous elections.