India Stock Outlook: Last leg of Q4 earnings key triggers

NEW DELHI: Indian stock market is likely to witness volatility next week (May 22-26) and shall be influenced by factors including the last leg of Q4 FY23 earnings, cues from global markets, and patterns in foreign fund inflows. This week, Sensex and Nifty lost a little less than a per cent.

"Markets took a breather in the passing week and shed over half a per cent amid mixed cues. The beginning was upbeat however profit taking in heavyweights across sectors pushed the index lower in the following sessions," said Ajit Mishra, VP - of Technical Research, at Religare Broking.

Mishra added he expects choppiness in markets to remain in the coming week too, "Meanwhile, global markets performance and consistency in the foreign flows will remain on the participants' radar for cues," Mishra added. On the earnings front, prominent names like BPCL, Ashok Leyland, Hindalco, ONGC, Grasim, and Zee will announce their numbers during the week.

Analysts say traders should limit their focus on identifying stocks from the preferred sectors like banking, financials, FMCG, and auto. According to Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities, "The last of the Q4 results are expected in the coming week. This could impact the individual stock prices, but the overall mood will be decided by the FPI flows and developments on the US debt default situation."

Coming to the foreign portfolio investors, they have been net buyers in India for the third month on a trot now, helping buoy Indian stocks. FPIs bought assets worth Rs 11,631 crore in Indian stock markets in April, according to NSDL data. In March, they purchased assets worth about Rs 7,936 crore in Indian stock markets. So far in May, they purchased equity assets worth reportedly over Rs 30,000 crore. The recent banking crisis in the US following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in early March and the relatively strong economic outlook for India seemed to have made renewed appetite for domestic stocks. Barring some exceptions, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had been selling equities in the Indian markets for over a year, which started in October 2021 for various reasons. In 2022, foreign portfolio investors sold Rs 121,439 crore worth of stocks in India on a cumulative basis. "Over the near term the markets may be expected to be volatile, led by very stock-specific movements as the earnings season goes underway in full swing," said Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management.