India poised for double-digit growth this fiscal: NITI Aayog VC

He also asserted the country is prepared in a far better manner in case there is a COVID wave as states have also their own lessons from the previous two waves.

“We are now hopefully getting past our (COVID-19) pandemic... and the economic activities will be strengthened as we get into the second half of this (fiscal) year given what I have seen for example various indicators, including the mobility indicators,” Kumar said.

The Indian economy has been adversely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and the recovery has been relatively sluggish in the wake of the second COVID wave.

Against this backdrop, the NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman exuded confidence that the economic recovery will be “very strong” and those agencies or organisations which have revised their GDP estimates downwards for this fiscal may have to revise them upwards again.

“Because, I expect India’s GDP growth this (fiscal) year would be in double digits,” he said.

The economy contracted by 7.3 per cent in the financial year ended March 31, 2021.

Among rating agencies, S&P Global Ratings has cut India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent from 11 per cent earlier, while Fitch Ratings has slashed the projection to 10 per cent from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier. The downward revisions were mainly due to slowing recovery post second COVID wave. Indicating the possibility of a strong rebound, the Reserve Bank has pegged economic growth at 9.5 per cent in the current fiscal that ends on March 31, 2022.

Asked when private investments will pick up, Kumar said in some sectors like steel, cement and real estate, significant investment in capacity expansion is happening already. In the consumer durable sector, it might take longer because consumers might feel a little hesitant due to uncertainty on account of the pandemic, he said. “Full-fledged private investment recovery, we should expect by the third quarter of this (fiscal) year”.

Responding to a query on concerns over a possible third COVID wave, Kumar said “I think the government is far better prepared now to face the third COVID wave, if at all it does come up... I feel the impact of the third wave on the economy will be much weaker than it was during the second wave and the beginning of the first wave.” A good number of IPOs of startups are lined up, he said, adding “the climate for disinvestment is looking better,” giving room to be hopeful.