India only major economy with talent surplus by 2030: Study

India may even challenge America’s position in technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) sector, said the ‘Global Talent Crunch’ study by Korn Ferry International Inc. 

“Left unchecked, the financial impact of this talent shortage amounts to $8.5 trillion in unrealised annual revenue globally over the next 12 years,” it pointed out.

“Interestingly, the country that’s at the other end of the spectrum is India. The world’s sixth largest economy is the only one in the study which will have a talent surplus by 2030, with 245 million more workers in the next 12 years,” it said.

The study covered 20 major developed and developing economies in three regions - the Americas (Brazil, Mexico, the US), EMEA (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE, the UK) and Asia Pacific (Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand).

The model focuses on three knowledge-intensive sectors within each market that act as critical drivers of global economic growth: financial and business services; TMT; and manufacturing. It also examines the remainder of each economy, said Korn Ferry. 

The imminent skilled labour shortage could ultimately shift the global balance of economic power by 2030, if left unaddressed, the study said, and added that technological advancement could be hindered by an acute global labour shortage of 4.3 million TMT workers by 2030.

“India will see a Level A (highly skilled) TMT surplus of 1.3 million workers by 2030, offering yet more opportunities for the nation. India could challenge America’s position well before 2030 in the TMT sector,” said the firm.

The study forecasts a talent deficit of 85 million workers by 2030 across the economies analysed and the largest threat in the near term is faced by the US, Japan, France, Germany and Australia with a combined opportunity cost of $1.87 trillion by 2020.

However, the 245 million talent surplus in India poses twin challenge of employability and job creation, the study noted. “If let unchecked, the talent surplus will add to our woes of jobless growth and unemployment,” said Bhavna Sud, Client Partner, Korn Ferry India.

Sud said the companies across the world need to re-think their hiring and talent management processes. 

“Hire for fit and culture rather than skills because skills come with a shelf life now. Hire people high on agility and make continuous learning a part of your life. Retain your best and show them a growth path,” she said, sharing some of the study’s suggestions.