Per capita income growth may fall to 8.3 per cent to Rs 1,11,782 in FY18

“The per capita net national income during 2017-18 is estimated to be Rs 1,11,782 showing a rise of 8.3 per cent as compared to Rs 1,03,219 during 2016-17 with the growth rate of 9.7 per cent,” said First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2017-18’ released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). 

The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of Rs 86,660 as compared to Rs 82,269 for the year 2016-17, it said. The growth rate in per capita income (real terms) is estimated at 5.3 per cent during 2017-18, as against 5.7 per cent in the previous year, it added. The economic growth is expected to slow to a four-year low of 6.5 per cent in 2017-18, the lowest under the Modi-led government, mainly due to poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

GST impact - GDP growth at 6.5% 

Meanwhile, implementation of GST and subsequent slowdown in the manufacturing sector is expected to drag down India’s growth to 6.5 per cent in 2017-18, official data showed on Friday.

India’s projected economic growth rate for 2017-18 will be lower than the 7.1 per cent achieved in 2016-17. According to Chief Statistician T.C.A. Anant, the de-stocking disruption caused due to the GST implementation has impacted the full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates. The estimate of national income for 2017-18 released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of Rs 129.85 lakh crore. 

“The growth in GDP during 2017-18 is estimated at 6.5 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.1 per cent in 2016-17,” the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in its estimate of National Income for 2017-18. Earlier, the country’s GDP growth for the second quarter of the current fiscal ended September 30 was 6.3 per cent -- up from 5.7 per cent reported during the first quarter of 2017-18.

The CSO has primarily used seven-month data to extrapolate for the full fiscal. As per the data, the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs 111.85 lakh crore in 2016-17 to Rs 118.71 lakh crore in 2017-18.  “Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2017-18 is 6.1 per cent as against 6.6 per cent in 2016-17.”

The data disclosed that sectors like ‘public administration, defence and other services’, ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ and ‘financial, real estate and professional services’ registered a growth rate of over 7 per cent.

On the other hand, growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’ and ‘construction’ sectors “is estimated to be 2.1 per cent (from 4.9 per cent), 2.9 per cent (from 1.8 per cent), 4.6 per cent (from 7.9 per cent) and 3.6 per cent (from 1.7 per cent)”, respectively.