Industry stays muted, to grow by 0.5 per cent

“Industrial sector faces constraints from subdued domestic demand and weak, uncertain external demand on one hand and financing constraints, rising input prices and stalled projects on the other hand,” D&B said in a report. “We expect Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to remain weak and grow by only 0.0 per cent - 0.5 per cent during January 2017,” it added. Besides, the report said firming up of global commodity prices as well as depreciation of the rupee poses significant upward risk to inflation. 

D&B estimates CPI (consumer price index) inflation is expected to be in the range of 3.4 per cent-3.6 per cent and WPI (wholesale price index) inflation to be in the range of 5.5 per cent-5.7 per cent in February. “While WPI inflation is expected to edge further upwards, the second-round impact of the industrial input prices will feed into the inflation in the coming months,” the report said. “Moreover, while cost push pressures are building up, demand pull inflation might be impending as re monetisation measures gets underway,” it added. Further, it noted that the record food grain production and the thrust in the rural demand in the Union Budget are also likely to fuel demand side pressures. As per D&B analysis, the rupee will trade in the range of around Rs 67.10-67.30 per US dollar during February. 

“Expectations of a US Fed rate increase, surge in global commodity prices, year-end oil related dollar payments, geopolitical uncertainty and over-valuation of rupee will pressurise rupee to move downwards going ahead,” it said.

India and Germany on Friday ratified a comprehensive Social Security Agreement (SSA), to come into effect from May, to improve investment flows between the two countries, an official here said. 

The agreement, signed on October 12, 2011, and of which instruments of ratification were exchanged on Friday, is expected to reduce the operational costs of Indian and German companies operating in either of the countries. 

“The agreement establishes the rights and obligations of nationals of both countries and provides for their equal treatment and unrestricted payment of pensions even in case of residence in the other contracting state (benefits export principle),” an official release of the Ministry of External Affairs said. 

“The requirements to be entitled to a pension can be met by aggregating the periods of insurance completed in India and Germany, whereby each country pays only the pension for the insurance periods covered by its laws. The period of posting will be up to 48 calendar months,” it added. The two countries signed an Agreement on Social Insurance on October 8, 2008, which came into force on October 1, 2009. 

As per the Agreement, detached workers of the two countries were exempted from making social security contributions in either country, in case they made such contributions in their native countries. Subsequently, on October 12, 2011, the two countries signed a comprehensive Agreement on Social Security, which included totalisation of social benefits. 

Till date, India has signed and operationalised similar agreements with 18 countries, including  Australia, Canada, France, Germany and Japan.