A Russia-friendly populist party finished first in a crowded field on Sunday in Slovakia’s parliamentary elections, a vote that many in Europe have seen as a bellwether of support for the war in Ukraine. The party led by Robert Fico, a pugnacious former prime minister who has vowed to stop aid to Kyiv, held almost 23 percent of the votes, with nearly all districts tallied, while a liberal party that wants to maintain robust support in the fight against Russia trailed with about 18 percent.
Neither of the top two finishers — Fico’s populist and nominally left-wing Smer and the liberal Progressive Slovakia — was close to winning a majority, leaving the shape of the next government and its policy toward Ukraine dependent on the performance of smaller parties with widely differing views on Russia and on the ability to form a coalition. A far-right party even more hostile to helping Ukraine than Fico’s failed to make it into Parliament, making it difficult for anti-Ukraine forces to form a government.
Faced with a plethora of choices between communists and far-right nationalists, Slovakia, a small Central European nation that borders Ukraine, voted on Saturday in a general election freighted with outsize consequences about the West’s support for Ukraine. Twenty-five parties from across the political spectrum put up candidates for Parliament, but the first- and second-place finishers offered diametrically opposed positions on Ukraine.
Exit polls early Sunday indicated that Progressive Slovakia — which wants to continue support for Ukraine and is led by Michal Simecka, a former journalist and liberal member of the European Parliament — had finished just ahead of Fico’s party. Early official results, mostly from rural areas, put Fico in the lead, but his opponents believed that a final tally including votes from more liberal-leaning cities like Bratislava, the capital, would be in their favor.
The advantage stayed with Fico, a former prime minister forced from office in 2018 amid huge protests over the murder of a journalist investigating government corruption. The result sealed a remarkable comeback for a disgraced politician detested by substantial parts of the population and who had been widely counted out after his party fared poorly in the last election in 2020.
Voice, the social democratic party of Peter Pellegrini, an estranged former ally of Fico, got nearly 15 percent of the vote, putting it in the position of being a possible kingmaker.
Despite near-constant political upheaval since the last election in 2020, Slovakia, a member of the European Union and NATO, had been a particularly robust and steady supporter of Ukraine in its war with Russia, welcoming refugees and providing millions of dollars’ worth of mostly Soviet-era weapons. It was the first country to provide Ukraine with fighter jets and air defense missiles.
Given Fico’s vociferous opposition to aiding the Ukrainians, the election was closely watched across Europe as an indicator of mainstream consensus on the war. But Slovakia’s election, for most voters, was not primarily about Ukraine, said Dominika Hajdu, an analyst with Globsec, a research group based in Bratislava. “It was more about values, conservatism versus liberalism” and bread-and-butter issues, like food and fuel prices.
Higgins is the bureau chief for East and Central Europe based in Warsaw