It didn’t take long for Egypt to jump into election mode. Just days after the announcement that presidential elections would take place from December 10 to 12, and not in 2024 as initially planned, billboards and posters featuring Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi started to replace sale advertisements along popular streets.
Observers do not doubt that the 68-year-old will remain in power, even though seven other candidates have announced their intention to run, and the deadline for further candidates to enter the race is not until October 14. “Other candidates have no chance of winning the election, because there’s no opportunity for them to compete,” Timothy E. Kaldas, deputy director of the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told DW.
Indeed, the two most promising opposition candidates, Ahmed Altantawy, the former head of the leftist al-Karama (Dignity) Party, and Gameela Ismail, the chairwoman of the liberal al-Dostour (Constitution) Party, reported that their supporters were being harassed, interrogated and, in Altantawy’s case, also detained. The Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR), a Cairo-based think tank, confirmed that the crackdown on Altantawy’s supporters “has intensified, with at least 73 campaign members detained in connection to charges of joining a subversive or terrorist group, spreading false news, and misusing social media.”
“They were interrogated simply for filling out volunteer forms in Altantawy’s presidential campaign, while others just liked the campaign’s Facebook page,” the think tank added. Egypt’s National Election Authority, which oversees the country’s electoral process, responded in a statement that these claims “are baseless and false allegations.”
Meanwhile, Mada Masr, Egypt’s last non-state-controlled news site, reported that the phone of Altantawy was hacked multiple times in the past months.
“There is very little reason to believe that this election will look any different to that of 2018,” Alice Gower, Director of Geopolitics and Security at the London-based consultancy firm Azure Strategy, told DW.
In the 2018 election, el-Sissi won with 97% against one allied opponent after four opposition candidates were arrested or decided to quit due to threats and intimidation. El-Sissi has been in power since 2013 after leading a military coup that toppled Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, democratically elected after the Arab Spring uprising in 2011. Two elections have occurred since, in 2014 and 2018, but observers criticize that both lacked fairness.
In 2019, el-Sissi consolidated his power after amending the constitution, allowing the incumbent to stand for a third term. The changes also adjusted the length of presidential terms from four to six years, which would see el-Sissi in power until 2030 should he win. Despite el-Sissi calling on “Egyptians to witness this democratic scene, and to choose the right person for the role,” at a congress last weekend, Kaldas regards the upcoming vote as “electoral theater.”
“If there was a competitive election, el-Sissi would be extremely vulnerable,” he said. “Public discontent with the leadership, the deterioration in the economy, and the standard of living of most Egyptians has deteriorated for the duration of el-Sissi’s tenure.”