Editorial: Pak-Saudi pact needs realpolitik assessment

A defence pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia would have been one of the many bilateral pacts between two nations. But the present agreement comes in the backdrop of continuing military attacks on Palestine and Israel’s audacious attack on Qatar, which has a military base and assets belonging to the US.

Naturally, questions are being asked about the timing of the pact. The fact that Pakistan is a nuclear state, the only Muslim majority nation with nuclear capabilities, has led to speculations about whether Saudi Arabia would look to Pakistan for a “nuclear umbrella”. Many analysts think it could be far-fetched at the moment.

The Israeli air strike on Qatar has caused some commotion in the Middle East. Even the most pragmatic and realpolitik diplomat in the Arab world would be worried about the consequences of the impunity enjoyed by US-backed Israel. Until recently, there has been a sense of security that the US would protect the oil-rich countries. But the foreign policy of Trump 2.0 has dented it to some extent.

The joint statement by the leaders of the two countries refers not only to “shared strategic interests and close defence cooperation” but also “the bonds of brotherhood and Islamic solidarity”, which assumes significance in the context of Israel. Joint deterrence against any aggression can be expected in any comprehensive defence pact. But when it is explicitly stated that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”, one would tend to read between the lines. The main purpose of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is to be a deterrent against India; it is not clear if it can provide nuclear cover to Saudi.

The question is, should alarm bells ring in New Delhi, too, as it was in a conflict with its western neighbour that has struck a deal with Saudi Arabia, with which India has good relations. India merely said that it expected Saudi Arabia to keep in mind mutual interests and sensitivities, given the wide-ranging strategic partnership that has considerably deepened in the last few years.

New Delhi might be hinting at the rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman. But it is increasingly becoming obvious that interpersonal rapport between leaders has its limits. Such bonhomie is more about optics and easily gets disregarded when the crunch comes in geopolitics, especially when the situation is marked by unpredictability and turmoil.

After its recent conflict with Pakistan, India made some friendly overtures to China, despite which Beijing may lean more towards Pakistan in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict. America, too, has a vested interest in backing Pakistan vis-à-vis India. Saudi Arabia had time and again come out in support of Pakistan with economic aid. The question that must be on the minds of Indian foreign policy experts now is, with the new "Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement", will Saudi to sensitive to Indian interests.

The US and its ally Israel would not be unduly perturbed by the pact, whereas India needs to make a realistic risk assessment and take steps accordingly. Being the second largest partner of the Kingdom and a destination for USD 100 billion, India should leverage its strong ties to restrict Saudi Arabia’s support to Pakistan in military matters.