To form a government 61 members of the Knesset are needed. Israel is clearly heading towards a period of paralysis and acrimony among the various parties, that may lead to a fifth election late in the summer. The Israeli electoral representation system makes it almost impossible for a single party to win an election outright. Netanyahu's party Likud won 24.2 percent of the vote and now has 30 Knesset Members (six less than before), while the centrist Yesh Atid, the main opposition party, won 13.9 percent of the vote, having secured 17 seats in the Knesset.
The heterogeneous coalition of the anti-Netanyahu parties of Yesh Atid (17 seats), Kahol Lavan (8 seats), Yisrael Beiteinu (7 seats), Labor (7seats), New Hope (6 seats), Joint List (6 seats), and Meretz (6 seats) garner together 57 KMs and need another 4 to form a government. Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing, religious, and Zionist allies control 52 KMs i.e. Likud (30 seats), Shas (9 seats) United Torah Judaism (7 seats), and Religious Zionism (6 seats), so they need the support of another 9 members of the Knesset. Two parties- the right-wing Yamina party of Naftaly Bennet, which has elected 7 MKs and the United Arab List (Raam) of Mansur Abbas, which managed to elect 4 MKs, so far remain uncommitted and will be the kingmakers, as Netanyahu needs the support of both these parties to form a government, while his opponents need at least one of the two parties.
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin this week will have consultations with all parties and eventually give the mandate to the candidate who has the highest probability of forming a government. Negotiations between the parties that will eventually succeed in forming a governing coalition usually take several weeks. Many Israelis believe that the real reason why Netanyahu caused the March 23 election was to halt the criminal trial that will start on April 5. He is accused of getting gifts from millionaire friends and for giving regulatory favors for media tycoons in return for favorable coverage.
Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman said he would advance a bill that will prevent a criminal defendant from forming a government. This will ensure that if a fifth election is held, Netanyahu will be barred from running. The wily Netanyahu, in the hope of achieving a clear victory in the elections, reneged on all his campaign promises to Benny Gantz of the Kahol Lavan party and by failing to agree on the country's budget law, caused the collapse of his coalition government with Gantz. So he forced the holding the fourth election in two years. He expected that he would dissolve Kahol Lavan and win a lot of votes from the fact that by election day most adult Israelis were vaccinated against the coronavirus. Evidently, he failed, as Kahol Lavan succeeded in winning 8 seats, and Israelis were not so impressed by the vaccination success.
Even if Naftali Bennet, the leader of the right-wing Yamina Party, joins the Netanyahu coalition, after hard bargaining and after securing the cabinet posts he wants, Netanyahu will still need the Arab KMs of Mansur Abbas. Abbas did not rule out the possibility of forging a coalition with the Netanyahu group if he gets serious concessions from the embattled Netanyahu. This however would be anathema for the ultra-orthodox religious parties, which flatly refused to sit in a government-supported by an Islamist party. Patrick Kingsley of the New York Times says: "Whoever receives the invitation (to form a government) is expected to struggle to form a coalition. If Mr. Netanyahu persuades Raam to join his coalition, he could lose the support of a far-right alliance already in his bloc. That alliance, Religious Zionism, said Thursday that it would refuse to serve in a government-supported by Raam. Similarly, Lapid may struggle to persuade two right-wing parties within his alliance to sit not just with Raam, but with another Arab group called the Joint List."
The coming weeks will be full of suspense as intensive negotiations among the various parties of the two coalitions will continue and Netanyahu will remain Acting Prime Minister while being on trial for criminal offenses. The paralysis of the Israeli government will continue for some weeks at least and this Netanyahu is clearly responsible. As Amos Harel wrote in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz "it is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who over the past two years has stalled the Israeli political system like the Egyptian ship that for several days now has been blocking busy international ship traffic through the Suez Canal."