Announcing the long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) on Friday, experts said rainfall was likely to be 98 per cent of the Long Period Average.
“This bodes well for agriculture, as they can rely on good rains for their crops without worrying about excess flooding or water wastage,” said M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Sea Surface temperature conditions like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is moving towards neutral conditions, and the IMD is closely monitoring them and the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions to analyse possible impact.
For spatial rainfall distribution forecasts and regionally averaged rainfall forecasts, IMD has developed a Multi-Model Ensemble forecasting system, a universally-accepted technique that can improve forecasts and reduce errors.
The IMD will announce monthly probabilistic forecasts for all four months of the season, that will be released at the end of each month.
“IMD has also been making efforts to develop a separate forecast for the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which represents most of the rainfed agriculture region in the country. A separate forecast will be more useful for agricultural planning and crop yield estimation, etc. In the second stage forecast in May, IMD will issue a separate probabilistic forecast for the MCZ, based on MME system and a new statistical model,” Rajeevan said.